Need To Know News

Year-over-year: Week (w/e 11/29/08 vs year-ago) -0.4%

Year-over-year: Month (November 2008 vs November 2007) -0.9%

Month-over-month: (November 2008 vs October 2008) -1.1%

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was down 0.4% in the fourth and final week of November following a 1.4% drop the prior week. Month-to-date, November was down 0.9% compared to November of last year (relative to a target of a 0.5% drop). Month-over-month was 1.1% below October (compared to a targeted 0.7% drop).

Thanksgiving weekend sales were above expectations, but did not compensate for month long softness. The day immediately following the holiday, so-called Black Friday, was the busiest but the momentum did not follow through to Saturday and Sunday. Retailers lured shoppers with deep discounts and extended shopping hours. Apparel and accessories did well as cooler weather awakened consumer interest in seasonal fall merchandise such as cashmere sweaters, coats and gloves. Demand for lower priced electronics including: laptops, GPS, consumer electronics, games and digital cameras was also relatively strong. Gross margins continue to be pressured by an increase in markdowns. Some reported that shoppers were hesitant to buy gift cards, concerned that stores could go out of business. Retailers officially report November sales on Thursday and we plan as usual to release our Johnson Redbook Same-store Sales Index that morning.

Sales in the week ended November 22 were down 1.4% y-o-y week, down 1.1% y-o-y month and down 1.3% m-o-m.

Redbook sales for the week ended November 15 declined 0.9% y-o-y week, dropped 0.9% y-o-y month and fell 1.1% m-o-m.

Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted, while y-o-y figures are not. There are no estimates for the Redbook Index, as weekly retail data are highly volatile.

Sales in the week ended November 22 were down 1.4% y-o-y week, down 1.1% y-o-y month and down 1.3% m-o-m.

Redbook sales for the week ended November 15 declined 0.9% y-o-y week, dropped 0.9% y-o-y month and fell 1.1% m-o-m.

Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted, while y-o-y figures are not. There are no estimates for the Redbook Index, as weekly retail data are highly volatile.

Sales drop 0.9% Y-o-Y month
Sales decline 1.3% M-o-M

Sales in the week ended November 15 were down 0.9% y-o-y week, down 0.9% y-o-y month and down 1.1% m-o-m.

Redbook sales for the week ended November 8 declined 1% y-o-y week, dropped 1% y-o-y month and fell 1.2% m-o-m.

Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted, while y-o-y figures are not. There are no estimates for the Redbook Index, as weekly retail data are highly volatile.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was down 0.9% in the second week of November following a 1.0% drop the prior week. Month-to-date, November was down 0.9% compared to November of last year (relative to a target of a 0.5% drop). Month-over-month was 1.1% below October (compared to a targeted 0.7% drop). November is a four-week month on the retail calendar, ending November 29, 2008.

Veterans Day promotions helped to lift traffic and sales slightly while wildfires in Southern California disrupted many businesses. Holiday merchandise is already displayed in stores. Promotional activity is earlier and broader than last year as retailers seek to drive store traffic and clear excess apparel inventory. Most retailers following NRF 4-5-4 calendar guidelines will lose seven post-Thanksgiving shopping days in November compared to last year. This will benefit retail December at the expense of November.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was down 1.0% in the first week of November. Month-to-date, November was down 1.0% compared to November of last year (relative to a revised target of a 0.5% drop). Month-over-month was 1.2% below October (compared to a targeted 0.7% drop). November is a four-week month on the retail calendar, ending November 29, 2008.

Sales were below plan in the first week of November. Business was soft as the country focused on national elections. Sales forecasts for this month and next take into account calendar consideration, which may color results. Notably, stores following NRF guidelines will post lower comps in November and boost December sales. The calendar shift will cause 7 fewer days of post Thanksgiving holiday sales in November, likely resulting in less holiday related gift purchases in late November compared to last year.

–Johnson Redbook

Redbook Retail Sales for the fourth week of October were as follows:

Year-over-Year: Week(w/e 11/02/08): Up 0.3%
Year-over-year: Month (October) Up 0.6%
Month-Over-Month: (October vs. September) Down 1.2%

Redbook’s preliminary target for November is for 0.9% year-over-year same store growth, with a month-over-month gain at 0.7%.

Redbook Retail Sales for the fourth week of October were as follows:

Year-over-Year: Week(w/e 11/02/08): Up 0.3%
Year-over-year: Month (October) Up 0.6%
Month-Over-Month: (October vs. September) Down 1.2%

Redbook’s preliminary target for November is for 0.9% year-over-year same store growth, with a month-over-month gain at 0.7%.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was up 0.3% in the fourth and final week of October following a 0.7% gain in the prior week. Month-to-date, October was up 0.6% compared to October of last year (relative to a targeted 0.7% gain). Month-over-month was 1.2% below September (compared to a targeted 1.0% drop).

Halloween business was satisfactory, although its effects were not uniform, given the differences in retailers’ exposure to this merchandising drive. The latest week, including last minute Halloween related merchandise shopping, gave a lift to customer traffic and sales at discounters. Halloween shopping also helped to spur sales of pharmaceutical items and basic consumables. Meanwhile, holiday merchandise is beginning to display on floors as retailers are promoting earlier than usual. Looking forward, November is ending with the official beginning of the holiday season starting on “Black Friday” which falls in the final week.