Need To Know News

Single-family home sales index: 17 vs. 18 prior

Prospective buyers index: 17 vs. 19 prior

Home sales over next 6 months index: 27 vs. 30 prior

The Apr. NAHB Housing Market Index was unchanged at 20 for a 3rd consecutive month. NAHB president Dunn said the housing market has not experienced the increase in sales activity normally associated with this time of year.

The NAHB believes measures from Congress will help release some pent-up demand in the marketplace while improving market confidence and stability.

The Apr. NAHB component index — which measure current sales conditions — fell 2 points to 18, the lowest level in over a year. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers stood at 19 for the 3rd consecutive month. The index measuring sales expectations for the next 6 months grew 4 points to 30.

Regional results were mixed with the Northeast region gaining 1 point to 22, the Midwest falling 1 point to 15, the South falling 2 points to 24, and the West up 2 points to 17.

The NAHB’s Housing Market Index held steady at 20 in March as analysts had expected. In Dec. the index hit an all-time low of 18 and has moderated above that level slightly.

The index for current sales conditions remained at 20 and the index for prospective buyers’ traffic remained at 19. The index measuring 6-month sales expectations, however, fell to 26 from 27.

Of the 4 regions the index covers, the Northeast fell to 21 from 23 and the West fell 1 point to 15. The Midwest region held steady at 16 and the South region reported a 2-point gain to 26.

The NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 20 for February, above expectations of 19 and above the prior reading of 19. The Current Single-Family Home Sales Index also rose to 20 from a Jan. reading of 19. The NAHB’s Index of Prospective Buyers jumped to 19 from 14 in Jan.

Index of current single family homes sales: 19 vs. 19 prior
Index of prospective buyers: 14 vs. 13 prior
Index of home sales over next 6 months: 28 vs. 26 prior

On its face, this morning’s reported 32% jump in mortgage applications is an anomaly in the current market environment.

The Mortgage Bankers Association today said its Market Composite Index for the week ended Jan. 4 was 706, up 32.2% from 533.9 the previous week. The 4-wk moving average for the seasonally adjusted MCI was down 4.1% to 624.4.

But the MCI, which measures mortgage loan application volume, counts multiple applications of prospective homeowners who experience difficulty securing mortgages the first time around. The data is also subject to seasonal variations — previous-year trends show a drop in applications in December and a spike in January.

The Mortgage Bankers Association tomorrow will release its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Jan. 4, 2008. MBA’s Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — fell 11.6% last week from 603.8 to 533.9 last week.

The NAHB Housing Market Index for December came in as expected at 19; this is the 3rd consecutive month of the 19 reading, the lowest since the Index began in 1985. Current Conditions improved to 19 from 18 while the Sales Expectations for the next 6 months improved by 2 points to 26. The Index measuring Sales Expectations Expectations fell however, losing 3 points to 14. The Midwest and South added 2 points the former moving up to 15, the latter up to 21. The West Index was unchanged at 18 but the Northeast shed 7 points, moving down to 19 with the NAHB blaming weather conditions for the loss. Problems in the mortgage market and excess inventories continue to keep the headline Index at the lowest reading ever.

The Single Family Sales Index in the Housing Market Index came in at 18, unchanged from the September reading. The overall November Housing Market Index came in at 19, unchanged from and upwardly revised reading in October. Builders reported that sales incentives had not been working due, in part, to bad publicity surrounding the housing market crisis, lowering the number of buyers and creating unrealistic pricing expectations from those buyers that are looking.

NAHB says builders are expecting an upswing in 2H, 2008 but the Sales Expectations Index (for 6 months hence) fell to 25 for November from 26 in October. The Index measuring Traffic of Prospective Buyers did increase to 17 from 15.

On a Regional basis the Housing Market Index reported an increase in the Northeast from 26 in October to 27 in November - the first positive uptick in the Northeast since May. The West ticked up to 18 from 15 in October; the first uptick since March. The South fell from 21 to 19 and the Midwest fell from 14 to 13.