Prices Paid: 80.8 vs. 84.5 prior
New Orders: 47.9 vs. 48.6 prior
Inventories: 54.5 vs. 53 prior
Business activity index: 49.6 vs. 49.9 prior
Employment: 47.1 vs. 43.8 prior
Non-factory backlogs: 52 vs. 49 prior
The July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (ISM-NMI) is expected to improve to 48.7 from 48.2 in June. The July ISM-NMI Production Index is expected to improve marginally to 50 from 49.9 in June.
The ISM-NMI Employment Index fell to 43.8 in June from 48.7 in May, the New Orders Index fell to 48.6 from 53.6, and the Prices Paid Index grew to an all-time high of 84.5 from 77 prior.
A muted month for the ISM-NMI is expected in July, though downside risks continue to test the US service sector’s resilience. The July ADP Employment report showed a surprising 74k increase in service-sector jobs, which could provide some upside support for the July ISM-NMI report (but the July Employment report revealed a 30k decline in private service sector jobs). The June ISM-NMI Employment Index fell to its lowest level since the survey’s inception in ’97, which may leave room for some correction — but it could still plunge lower.
The July ISM-NMI Prices Paid Index is likely to remain elevated following its June surge, as July inflation data have generally come in higher than expected.
Related data:
July Empire Fed Index: -4.92 vs. -8.68 prior
July Empire Fed Prices Paid Index: 77.9 (record) vs. 66.28 prior
July Philly Fed Index: -16.3 vs. -17.1 prior
July Philly Fed Prices Paid Index: 75.60 vs. 69.30 prior
July Chicago PMI: 50.8 vs. 49.6 prior
July Chicago PMI Prices Paid Index: 90.7 vs. 85.5 prior
July ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index: 88.5 vs. 91.5 (record) prior
The July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (ISM-NMI) is expected to improve to 48.7 from 48.2 in June. The July ISM-NMI Production Index is expected to improve marginally to 50 from 49.9 in June.
The ISM-NMI Employment Index fell to 43.8 in June from 48.7 in May, the New Orders Index fell to 48.6 from 53.6, and the Prices Paid Index grew to an all-time high of 84.5 from 77 prior.
A muted month for the ISM-NMI is expected in July, though downside risks continue to test the US service sector’s resilience. The July ADP Employment report showed a surprising 74k increase in service-sector jobs, which could provide some upside support for the July ISM-NMI report (but the July Employment report revealed a 30k decline in private service sector jobs). The June ISM-NMI Employment Index fell to its lowest level since the survey’s inception in ’97, which may leave room for some correction — but it could still plunge lower.
The July ISM-NMI Prices Paid Index is likely to remain elevated following its June surge, as July inflation data have generally come in higher than expected.
Related data:
July Empire Fed Index: -4.92 vs. -8.68 prior
July Empire Fed Prices Paid Index: 77.9 (record) vs. 66.28 prior
July Philly Fed Index: -16.3 vs. -17.1 prior
July Philly Fed Prices Paid Index: 75.60 vs. 69.30 prior
July Chicago PMI: 50.8 vs. 49.6 prior
July Chicago PMI Prices Paid Index: 90.7 vs. 85.5 prior
July ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index: 88.5 vs. 91.5 (record) prior
Computer and Electronic Products, Petroleum and Coal Products, Food, Beverage and Tobacco, Primary Metal Paper and Chemical Products reported Growth in the July ISM report.
Contraction was reported in Plastic and Rubber Products, Wood products, Tranportation Equipment, Printing and Related Supports, Electrical Equipment, Appliances and Components, Machinery and Misc. Manufacturing and Fabricated Metal Products.
New Orders were down 4.6%, Inventories fell 6.2% and Customer Inventories fell 8%. Prices dropped 3% and Order backlogs were down 4.5%. Exports, a perceived growth area, dropped 4.5%.
Manufacturing PMI posted the second month of at least a 50 reading but the previouis 4 months were sub 50 readings, indicating contraction.
Prices Paid index: 88.5 vs. 91.5 prior
Employment index: 51.9 vs 43.7 prior
New Orders index: 45 vs. 49.6 prior
The July ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 49.0 from 50.2 in May. The June New Orders Index dropped to 49.6 from 49.7, the Shipments Index grew to 51.5 from 51.2 and the Employees Index declined to 43.7 from 45.5 in May.
The Prices Paid Index grew to 91.5 in June from 87 in May, the Inventories Index rose to 51.2 from 48, and the Backlogs Index increased to 47.5 from 46.
After posting a reading over 50 in May for the first time in June, ISM looks set to come in below that level again in July. However, the index still is above normal recessionary levels.
In Regional FED data, New York and Chicago indices beat expectations, but the Philadelphia index was lower than consensus.
July Empire State FED Index: -4.9 vs. -8.7 prior
New Orders: 8.3 vs. -5.5 prior
Prices Paid: 77.9 vs. 66.3 prior
Employment: -6.3 vs. 1.2 prior
July Philly FED Index: -16.3 vs. -17.1 prior
New Orders: -12.1 vs. -12.4 prior
Prices Paid: 75.6 vs. 69.3 prior
Employment: -7.3 vs. -6.9 prior
July Chicago PMI: 50.8 vs 49.6 prior
New Orders: 53.5 vs. 52 prior
Prices Paid: 90.7 vs. 85.5 prior
Employment: 45.9 vs. 46.7 prior
The July ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 49.0 from 50.2 in May. The June New Orders Index dropped to 49.6 from 49.7, the Shipments Index grew to 51.5 from 51.2 and the Employees Index declined to 43.7 from 45.5 in May.
The Prices Paid Index grew to 91.5 in June from 87 in May, the Inventories Index rose to 51.2 from 48, and the Backlogs Index increased to 47.5 from 46.
After posting a reading over 50 in May for the first time in June, ISM looks set to come in below that level again in July. However, the index still is above normal recessionary levels.
In Regional FED data, New York and Chicago indices beat expectations, but the Philadelphia index was lower than consensus.
July Empire State FED Index: -4.9 vs. -8.7 prior
New Orders: 8.3 vs. -5.5 prior
Prices Paid: 77.9 vs. 66.3 prior
Employment: -6.3 vs. 1.2 prior
July Philly FED Index: -16.3 vs. -17.1 prior
New Orders: -12.1 vs. -12.4 prior
Prices Paid: 75.6 vs. 69.3 prior
Employment: -7.3 vs. -6.9 prior
July Chicago PMI: 50.8 vs 49.6 prior
New Orders: 53.5 vs. 52 prior
Prices Paid: 90.7 vs. 85.5 prior
Employment: 45.9 vs. 46.7 prior
That compares with 51.0 expected, and a reading of 51.7 the prior month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The prices paid index jumped to 84.5 — a record since the index was first published in 1997 — from 77.0 in May.
New Orders fell to 48.6 from 53.6 and Business Activity was down at 49.9 from 53.6 in May. The Employment index fell to 43.8 from 48.7.
The June ISM Non Manufacturing Index (NMI) is expected to fall to 51 in June following a 51.7 reading in May. The ISM NMI production index in June is expected at 52.5, which would indicate expansion but is below the 53.6 reading in May.
The ISM NMI employment index was 48.7 in May from 50.8 in April, the new orders index was 53.5 from 50.1, and the prices paid index was 77 from 72.1 in April. The NMI inventories index grew to 54 in May from 47 prior.
The ISM –NMI usually outperforms the ISM Manufacturing index, which came in at 50.2 in June after a 46.9 reading in May. Downside risks to the US economy continue to stack up as higher gas prices, falling home values and widespread consumer pessimism have made conditions uncertain, to say the least.
One of the few bright spots remaining is the services sector, whose recent performance might help the US economy skirt a recession — though it is too soon to say.
Other points to consider:
* The ISM NMI employment index could slip further in June after the June ADP employment report revealed a 79k drop in jobs today, with a 3k drop in the service sector.
* The boost in personal income as a result of the government stimulus package should provide a marginal boost for the June ISM-NMI index.
* The June ISM NMI Prices Paid index, which surged to 77 in May, is likely to face further upward pressure after May producer prices posted a higher than expected 1.4% increase.
The June ISM Non Manufacturing Index (NMI) is expected to fall to 51 in June following a 51.7 reading in May. The ISM NMI production index in June is expected at 52.5, which would indicate expansion but is below the 53.6 reading in May.
The ISM NMI employment index was 48.7 in May from 50.8 in April, the new orders index was 53.5 from 50.1, and the prices paid index was 77 from 72.1 in April. The NMI inventories index grew to 54 in May from 47 prior.
The ISM –NMI usually outperforms the ISM Manufacturing index, which came in at 50.2 in June after a 46.9 reading in May. Downside risks to the US economy continue to stack up as higher gas prices, falling home values and widespread consumer pessimism have made conditions uncertain, to say the least.
One of the few bright spots remaining is the services sector, whose recent performance might help the US economy skirt a recession — though it is too soon to say.
Other points to consider:
* The ISM NMI employment index could slip further in June after the June ADP employment report revealed a 79k drop in jobs today, with a 3k drop in the service sector.
* The boost in personal income as a result of the government stimulus package should provide a marginal boost for the June ISM-NMI index.
* The June ISM NMI Prices Paid index, which surged to 77 in May, is likely to face further upward pressure after May producer prices posted a higher than expected 1.4% increase.