Need To Know News

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 15 are expected at 500k from 516k the previous week (highest since Sep-01).

It will likely be the 18th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.905mln, down from 3.897mln the week prior.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 491k last week, from 178k previous. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.794mln for the week ended November 1 from 3.751mln the prior week.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 15 are expected at 500k from 516k the previous week (highest since Sep-01).

It will likely be the 18th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.905mln, down from 3.897mln the week prior.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 491k last week, from 178k previous. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.794mln for the week ended November 1 from 3.751mln the prior week.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 8 were 516k, the highest since September 29, 2001, when they spiked to 517k. This was much higher than expected and followed an upwardly revised 484k the week prior. Both California and Michigan estimated claims for the week.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 491k, a 13k increase from the previous week and the highest figure since Mar-91.

Continuing Claims also came in much higher than expected at 3.897mln, the highest since Jan-83, and following a downwardly adjusted 3.832mln the previous week. The 4-week moving average for claims rose 43k to 3.794mln, the highest since Mar-83.

For the week ended November 1, Ohio showed an increase in claims of almost 4k due to layoffs in the auto industry. On the flip side, California had a drop in claims of almost 4k.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 8 are expected at 475k from 481k the previous week.
It will likely be the 17th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.8mln, down from 3.843mln the week prior.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 477k last week, unchanged from the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.754mln for the week ended October 25 from 3.711mln the prior week.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 1st came in slightly higher than expected at 481k, a drop of 4k from last week’s upwardly revised 485k reading. Special factors were limited, with job losses resulting from hurricane season no longer having a material impact on the data at less than 2k. The 4-week moving average for initial claims was unchanged at 477k.

40 out of 53 total survey respondents reported an increase in initial claims, while the remaining 13 respondents reported a decrease in initial claims. Pennsylvania reported the largest increase in claims as a result of layoffs in construction and services. California, Illinois also reported weekly claims in excess of 4k. Texas revealed the largest drop in filed claims as a result of fewer losses in manufacturing, trade and services.

Continuing Claims for the week ending October 25th rose 122k to 3.843mln, the highest since February 1983, following an upwardly revised 3.721mln the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims at 3.754mln is the highest reading since April 1983.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 1 are expected at 475k from 479k the previous week. It will likely be the 16th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.735mln, up from 3.715mln the week prior.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 476k last week, compared to 481k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.71mln for the week ended October 18 from 3.682mln the prior week.

Initial Jobless claims for the week ending October 25th came in higher than expected at 479k, following an upwardly revised 479k reading the week prior. Special factors affecting the data were limited this week, while the BLS notes that the rate of hurricane related claims continues to show signs of easing. The 4-week moving average for Initial Claims was 475.5k from 480.5k last week.

Continuing Claims for the week ending October 18th fell 12k to 3.715mln following an upwardly revised 3.727mln the week prior. The 4-week moving average for Continuing Claims rose 28k to 3.709mln, the largest since June ‘03, from 3.681mln the prior week.

The number of states reporting a drop in initial claims nearly quadrupled those reporting increases. New York had the largest drop in weekly claims via fewer cuts in public administration, transports and services. Michigan also reported a considerable drop in claims as a result of fewer layoffs in the autos sector. Indiana, Oregon and Tennessee were the only three states reporting an increase in initial claims of more than 1k.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 25 are expected at 475k from 478k the previous week. It will likely be the 15th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.735mln, up from 3.72mln the week prior.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 480k last week, compared to 485k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.68mln for the week ended October 11 from 3.636mln the prior week.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 18 totaled 478k, 10k more than expected and following an upwardly revised 463k the week prior. Hurricane-related claims were 12k, unchanged from the previous week.

The 4-week moving average for claims fell 5k to 480k, the first drop in 8 weeks.

Continuing claims were 3.72mln, higher than the 3.71mln expected and after an upwardly adjusted 3.726mln the week prior. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims came in at 3.68mln, 44k higher than the previous week and their highest level since Jul-03.

In the week ended October 11, New York showed a 5k increase in claims due to layoffs in the construction, service and transportation industries. Michigan had a 3k jump from auto layoffs and Florida’s claims also rose 3k from cuts in construction, trade, services and agriculture.

Texas’ claims declined almost 6k from fewer layoffs in the trade, finance, and manufacturing industries, while Ohio showed a 4k drop.

• Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 19th are expected at 470k following 460k prior
• Continuing Claims are expected at 3.75mln following 3.711mln the prior week

Initial jobless claims have moderated over the past few weeks following a near term peak at 499k on September 26th. The recent jump which pushed claims near 500k has been attributed, by some analysts, to distortions as a result of job losses from hurricane season. Further dissipation of these recent distortions will provided a clearer view of employment conditions in the US—which is expected to remain considerably dim.

The outlook for continuing claims also remains dim, while recent increases suggests jobs in the US have become increasingly scarce. Weekly unemployment data in the coming weeks are likely to reflect the Fed’s recent increase in the Fed’s unemployment forecasts; however remaining dislocations and other volatile factors have made weekly data increasingly difficult to forecast.