Need To Know News

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 16 are expected at 440k from 450k the previous week. Tomorrow’s report will likely be the 5th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession. Labor officials have attributed the high numbers of the last 3 weeks to more people checking their eligibility for emergency unemployment benefits and learning they were actually eligible for regular benefits.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.405mln, lower than the 3.417mln last week (which was the highest since Nov-03).

The 4-week moving average for claims was 441k last week, compared to 421k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.274mln for the week ended August 2, from 3.167mln the prior week.

Jobless claims totaled 450k for the week ended August 9, down 10k from the previous week’s upwardly revised 460k. The August 2 claims number was revised up by 5k and is the highest number since the week ended March 30, 2002.

The number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits totaled 3.417mln, up 114k from the prior week. This was the highest number of insured unemployed since Nov-03.

Jobless claims exceeded 400k for the fourth week in a row for the first time since July 2003. The 4week moving average totaled 440k and is the highest since April 2002.

The Labor Department also released more detail about the August 2 claims data. Puerto Rico showed the largest gains in unemployment with over 5,000 claims added to the rolls. Layoffs in trade, services and manufacturing increased Illinois claims by over 4,000. However, fewer layoffs in the auto industry reduced Ohio’s claims by over 5,000 for the week.

There were 1,831 people collecting extended benefits in the week ended July 26, up 348 from the prior week. Extended benefits are available under two programs that provide benefits once regular state unemployment compensation has been exhausted. Most of these people in the extended benefits program are in Alaska, the first state to qualify for extended benefits.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 9 are expected at 435k from 455k the previous week, which was the highest reading since Mar-02.

Today’s report will likely be the 4th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession. Labor officials have attributed the high numbers the last 2 weeks to more people checking their eligibility for emergency unemployment benefits and learning they were actually eligible for regular benefits.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.31mln, a shade lower than the 3.311mln the prior week.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 420k last week, compared to 393k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.201mln for the week ended July 26, from 3.174mln the prior week.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 9 are expected at 435k from 455k the previous week, which was the highest reading since Mar-02.

Tomorrow’s report will likely be the 4th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession. Labor officials have attributed the high numbers the last 2 weeks to more people checking their eligibility for emergency unemployment benefits and learning they were actually eligible for regular benefits.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.31mln, a shade lower than the 3.311mln the prior week.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 420k last week, compared to 393k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.201mln for the week ended July 26, from 3.174mln the prior week.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 are expected at 425k from 448k the previous week. The Department of Labor attributed the high claims number to states being required to notify residents of a new extended benefits program. However, many who applied for the new program were actually eligible for regular benefits instead, and were counted in the initial claims figures. This boost in claims is expected to continue over the next 4-6 weeks. Tomorrow’s report will likely be the third straight week of initial claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.255mln from 3.282mln the prior week, which was the highest reading since 2003. The 185k increase prior was the largest in a decade.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 393k last week, compared to 382k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.175mln for the week ended July 19, from 3.132mln the prior week.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 are expected at 425k from 448k the previous week. The Department of Labor attributed the high claims number to states being required to notify residents of a new extended benefits program. However, many who applied for the new program were actually eligible for regular benefits instead, and were counted in the initial claims figures. This boost in claims is expected to continue over the next 4-6 weeks. Tomorrow’s report will likely be the third straight week of initial claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.

Continuing Claims are expected at 3.255mln from 3.282mln the prior week, which was the highest reading since 2003. The 185k increase prior was the largest in a decade.

The 4-week moving average for claims was 393k last week, compared to 382k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.175mln for the week ended July 19, from 3.132mln the prior week.

A Department of Labor Official noted that “less than 50% of people eligble for fiiing an Initial Jobless Claims do so”.  The reasons for not filing for an Initial Jobless Claim is thought to be an eligibility issue; people don’t file because they don’t think they are eligible.   A Department of Labor spokesperson notes that current special factors, the implementation if EUC and state generated letters to previous claimants, mean Initial Claims could be higher for 4 to 6 weeks.  The Labor spokesperson notes that the Tier 3 Emergency Unemployment Compensation program was signed by the President on 30 June and states started sending letters to possible claimants on 6 July.  Labor notes that the 4 to 6 week of higher claims is based on the 4 to 6 week period in 2002 when Initial Claims rose due to the enactment of the Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation act.  The TEUC was enacted in 2002 and lasted until 2004.  In short, we should look for higher Initial Claims for at least the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Today’s Initial Jobless Claims data spiked into clearly recessionary territory due, in part, to the Emergency Unemployment Compensation Act which provides for extended unemployment benefits in difficult economic times.  When the EUC is deployed, individual states send letters to previous unemployment benefit recipients asking them to come into the Labor office to see if they might qualify for the emergency benefit program.  Labor officials explained that respondents to the letters found that they qualified for an Initial Claim instead of the EUC program.  When asked if it was common for individuals to not claim initial benefits, the Labor official stated that somewhat less than 50% of eligible claimants actually claim benefits.

In short, the implementation of the ECU uncovered a slew of people that are entitled to make an Initial Claim for benefits.  A Labor Official expects that more people will be making claims for Initial Benefits in the coming weeks as letters go out from State Unemployment offices seeking to help those whose benefits have run out and finding those entitled to new claims.

New claims for unemployment insurance totaled 448K, well above the 393K expected. This is the highest level of initial claims since April 2003 but was impacted by special factors tied to the Federal Emergency Compensation program recently enacted by Congress. The initial claims for the week ended July 19 was revised down slightly to 404K from the previously reported 406K.

Continuing claims for unemployment compensation totaled 3.282 million for the week ended July 19, up 185,000 from the previous week, the largest increase in decade. This is the highest level of insured unemployment since December 2003.

The much higher number for initial claims is partly reflecting filings from unemployed persons who are checking their eligibility for Federal emergency unemployment benefits, recently approved by Congress, and it is determined that they are eligible for regular unemployment benefits. Many of these people have been notified by the state that they are potentially eligible for the emergency benefits program due to an exhaustion of their benefits during the past year but discover that they are eligible for the regular claims program again due to intervening periods of work. This raises the normal claims for unemployment benefits. The Department of Labor reported that previous research indicates as many as 50% of eligible unemployed do not file for unemployment benefits even under normal circumstances and this group may not have realized that intervening work made them eligible for the program again.

No data on the number of people who are eligible for the emergency federal benefits has been released yet by the Department of Labor.

More data is now available for the initial claims filed in the week ended July 19. Florida and Wisconsin reported the largest gains with increases of over 3K as layoffs increased in construction, services and trade jobs. New York reported 20K fewer initial claims during the week due to reduced layoffs in service, public administration and transportation industries.

Today’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected to come in at 393k, down 13k from an unrevised 406k in the previous week. Continuing Claims are expect to jump to 3.15mln from 3.107mln the previous week.

Last week’s jump over 400k was the third time this year claims topped the 400k level. In the week ended March 28, claims rose 35k to 406k but quickly reversed to 355k the following week. It was another 13 weeks until claims topped 400k again.

In the week ended June 27, Claims jumped 16k to 404k but then saw a sharp reversal to 348k the next week in what appeared to be another head-fake. However, the time between recessionary-level claims is shrinking, and expectations for higher claims are climbing. If Claims come in well below tomorrow’s expected 393k, we expect the government will have done some hiring during the period.