Need To Know News

The June Import Price Index rose 2.6% following a downwardly revised 2.6% increase in May.

Petroleum import prices increased 7.4% following an upwardly revised 8.9% increase in May and an upwardly revised 7.9% increase in April. Natural gas import prices, up 9.9% in June, rose for a 9th consecutive month.

Imports ex-petroleum were up 0.9% following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in May. Industrial supply and material import prices were up 5.8% in June and are up over 50% on a yearly basis. The 12-month cumulative average for all imports prices was up 20.5% in June.

June export prices rose 1% following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in May. Ag export prices grew 2.2% following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in May. Ex-ag export prices were up 0.9% in June and the 12-month cumulative average for all export prices was up 8.6% in June.

The upward revisions to previous import price data will further complicate the FED’s price stability objective.

June import prices are expected to rise 2% following a 2.3% increase in May, a 2.4% increase in April and a 3% increase in March. This would reflect a y-o-y import price index increase of 18.6%.

June export prices are expected to rise 0.7% following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.5% increase in April. Y-o-Y export prices were up 8% in May while food export prices y-o-y in May was up a solid 33.3%.

Import prices are expected to once again outpace export prices in June largely due to USD deterioration and surging energy import prices. The goods news is that the lag in export price growth relative to import prices should boost the appeal of US assets overseas, which should help narrow the trade deficit.

The bad news is that import prices, especially energies, have shown few signs of relenting from their current growth pace which will squeeze consumer purchasing power even further.

The June import prices index should receive a shot in the arm from the 7% increase in petroleum prices over the period; petroleum import prices were up 7.8% in May following a 5.9% increase in April and a 9.8% increase in March. There is also the risk of an elevated level for import prices ex-petroleum as a result of pipeline inflation from previous reports.

June export prices should receive a boost from a 7% increase in ag-export prices while non-ag export prices are expected to increase 0.6%.

June import prices are expected to rise 2% following a 2.3% increase in May, a 2.4% increase in April and a 3% increase in March. This would reflect a y-o-y import price index increase of 18.6%.

June export prices are expected to rise 0.7% following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.5% increase in April. Y-o-Y export prices were up 8% in May while food export prices y-o-y in May was up a solid 33.3%.

Import prices are expected to once again outpace export prices in June largely due to USD deterioration and surging energy import prices. The goods news is that the lag in export price growth relative to import prices should boost the appeal of US assets overseas, which should help narrow the trade deficit.

The bad news is that import prices, especially energies, have shown few signs of relenting from their current growth pace which will squeeze consumer purchasing power even further.

The June import prices index should receive a shot in the arm from the 7% increase in petroleum prices over the period; petroleum import prices were up 7.8% in May following a 5.9% increase in April and a 9.8% increase in March. There is also the risk of an elevated level for import prices ex-petroleum as a result of pipeline inflation from previous reports.

June export prices should receive a boost from a 7% increase in ag-export prices while non-ag export prices are expected to increase 0.6%.

May import prices rose 2.3% following a 2.4% increase in April and about in line with analysts’ expectations. The April index was revised up to a 2.4% increase from its previously reported 1.8% increase. Removing the 7.8% increase in petroleum products from the calculations leaves the nonpetroleum imports index up 0.5%, its smallest increase this year. The April measure of non-petroleum import prices was revised up to 1.3%.

Export prices rose 0.3%, its smallest increase since September. With agricultural product prices removed from the calculations, the export prices rose 0.4%. The price of exported agricultural products fell for the 2nd month in a row.

Import prices for non-fuel industrial products rose 1.4%, largely driven by price increases for metals. Capital goods rose 0.3% and imported motor vehicle prices were unchanged for the month. Prices of imported consumer goods — the ones most likely to impact increases in the CPI — showed a modest 0.2% increase after a 0.7% increase last month.

May Import Prices are forecast to increase 3% following a 1.8% rise in April. Export prices are seen 0.7% higher after the prior month’s 0.3% gain.

For import prices, the surge in Crude oil prices is seen as the key factor. Excluding petroleum, import prices are expected to rise 0.6%, slower than April’s 1.1% increase but still held up by high prices of other commodities and the lagged impact of a weaker dollar.

Exports ex-agriculture are not forecast to differ much from the headline figure, after the sharp rise in agriculture prices in the first quarter tailed off in April. Ex-ag exports are seen 0.6% higher, the same gain as in the prior month.

The Apr. Import Price Index increased 1.8%, which is slightly higher than consensus estimates but down from an upward revised 2.9% in Mar. The Import Price Index in Apr. was led higher by a 4.4% increase in the price of petroleum imports. Petroleum import prices y-o-y in Apr. were up 57.2%. Apr. Non-Petroleum import prices increased 1.1% and were led higher by a 3.3% increase in the price for non-petroleum industrial supplies and materials.

The twelve month cumulative average for all import prices was 15.4% in Apr., which is the largest recored increase since the Import Price Index was first published in ‘82.

Food import prices grew 0.4% in Apr. from an upward revised 2.8% increase in Mar. Prices for imported capital goods in Apr. grew 0.8% from an upward revised 0.1% increase in Mar. Prices for imported consumer goods in Apr. rose 0.2% from a 0.4% increase in Mar. Prices for Apr. imported industrial supplies and materials increased 3.9%.

Mar. export prices grew 0.3% from an unrevised 1.5% Mar. increase. Ex-Ag export prices increased 0.6% in Apr. from an upward revised 1.5% increase in Mar. Agriculture export prices fell a hefty 2.2% following an upward revised 4.2% increase in Mar. Prices for exported industrial supplies and materials grew 1.2%. Export prices were up 7.7% y-o-y in Apr.

Apr. Import Prices are expected to increase 1.6% following a 2.8% rise the prior month. Apr. Export Prices are expected to increase 0.5% following a 1.5% rise in Mar.

Apr. import prices are expected to be pushed higher by an expected 7% increase in the price of petroleum imports. Mar. petroleum import prices increased 9.1% in Mar. following a 1.9% decline in Feb.

Apr. import prices ex-petroleum, expected up 0.5%, face upside risks from continued USD weakness as and elevated food prices. Import Prices ex-petroleum increased 1.1% in Mar. following a 0.7% increase in Feb.

Apr. Export prices are expected to decelerate from their recent advance but should be well-supported by increases in food export prices. Food export prices increased 4.1% in Mar. while non-Ag export prices grew 1.2%.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fell in Apr. for the first time in almost a year, which puts downside risks on Apr. Ag-export prices. Apr. spot Ag prices also backed off their recent heights.

Apr. Import Prices are expected to increase 1.6% following a 2.8% rise the prior month. Apr. Export Prices are expected to increase 0.5% following a 1.5% rise in Mar.

Apr. import prices are expected to be pushed higher by an expected 7% increase in the price of petroleum imports. Mar. petroleum import prices increased 9.1% in Mar. following a 1.9% decline in Feb.

Apr. import prices ex-petroleum, expected up 0.5%, face upside risks from continued USD weakness as and elevated food prices. Import Prices ex-petroleum increased 1.1% in Mar. following a 0.7% increase in Feb.

Apr. Export prices are expected to decelerate from their recent advance but should be well-supported by increases in food export prices. Food export prices increased 4.1% in Mar. while non-Ag export prices grew 1.2%.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fell in Apr. for the first time in almost a year, which puts downside risks on Apr. Ag-export prices. Apr. spot Ag prices also backed off their recent heights.

The Mar. Import Price Index rose 2.8%, higher than the 2% analysts were expecting and last month’s modest 0.2% increase. The Mar. Import Price Index was paced by a somewhat expected 9.1% surge in petroleum imports. Non-petroleum import prices grew 1.1% following an upwardly revised 0.7% reading in FEB.

Food import prices grew 2.5% following and upwardly revised 0% reading in Feb. Prices for imported capital goods were unchanged, while prices for consumer goods grew 0.5%.

Imported industrial supplies and materials prices grew 6.6% in March and are up nearly 37% on the year.

The 12-month cumulative average for all imports now stands at 14.8, which is the largest since the index’s inception in ‘82.

Mar. export prices increased 1.5% following an upwardly revised 1.1% increase in Feb. Ag export prices grew 4.1% with a 3.8% increase in food export prices. Non-Ag exports gained 1.2% after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in Feb.

These data are a clear indication of continued USD deterioration.

The Mar. Import Price Index is expected at 2% after a 0.2% increase in Feb. The Mar. Export Price Index is expected at 0.5% from 0.9% in Feb. Import prices ex-Petroleum grew 0.6% in Feb., while petroleum import prices fell 1.5%. Export prices ex-Ag grew 0.5% in Feb. and food export prices grew 4.4%.

The expected surge in the Mar. Import Price Index is largely driven by an expected 10% increase in petroleum import prices. The increase in energy costs will be further compounded by USD weakness as the Greenback resumed a steeper rate of decline in Mar. after holding relatively steady in Jan. and Feb. The Mar. Import Price Index also faces upward pressure from elevated commodity prices, especially food. Increasing import prices should mitigate the drop-off in demand as a result of the US economic slowdown.

Mar. Export prices are expected at 0.5% largely due to an expected 1% increase in ag exports. Food export prices have posted considerable gains over the last quarter with a 4.4% in Feb. and gained 5% in Jan. Non-Ag export prices should get a boost from USD weakness; however, declining demand overseas may limit potential upside for the Index.

Import Prices y-o-y are up 13.6% with Petroleum imports up 60.9% and Ex-Petroleum import prices up 4.5%. Export Prices are up 30.8% y-o-y with a 30.8% increase in Food prices and a 4.6% increase in Non-Ag prices.

The Mar. Import/Export Prices report will set the stage for Mar. PPI and CPI. Analysts are expecting modest increases in each of the forthcoming inflation data as surging energy costs will take time to trickle through to the retail level.