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The July import price index rose 1.7%, its smallest increase since February. Prices of non-petroleum imports rose 0.9%, slightly below expectations and matching last month’s increase. Y-on-y the all imports price index rose 21.6%, its largest 12-month gain in the history of the index which began in 1982. Non-petroleum import prices rose 8%, its largest 12-month gain in 20 years.

The largest gains in import prices were once again in the fuels and industrial materials indexes, putting continued upward pressure on businesses’ input prices. Petroleum product prices rose 4% in July and imported natural gas prices rose 5.8%. Industrial materials other than fuel showed a 1.8% increase. The price increases for finished goods were more subdued, despite the upward price pressure from the falling dollar. Motor vehicle prices rose 0.1% and other consumer goods prices rose 0.3%.

Export prices rose 1.4% in July , its largest gain since March. Agricultural export prices rose 6.7% as the prices of grains and oilseeds exports increased sharply. This is the largest one-month gain in the index since it was first published in 1988. The prices of non-agricultural exports rose 0.8%. Y-on-y the price index for all exports has risen 10.2%, its largest 12-month gain in the history of the index which began in 1983. Non-agricultural prices increased 7.5% in the past 12 months and agricultural export prices rose 39.9% over the past year, a new record for that index. Only capital goods prices showed a decline in July, down 0.2%.

The July Import Price Index is expected to increase 1% following a 2.6% increase in both April and May. Y-o-Y import prices are expected to narrow marginally to 20.4%. Export Prices are expected to gain 0.6% following a 1% increase prior. Y-o-Y export prices were up 8.6% in June following a 8.1% rate in May.

Import prices are expected to show a marked deceleration in July in line with range-bound petroleum prices over the period. That should provide some relief from recent surges in the Petroleum Import Price Index (which gained 7.4% in June after an 8.9% increase in May and a 7.9% increase in April). The y-o-y Petroleum Import Price Index should pull back from the 78.6% rate in the June report.

There is continued upside risk to the ex-Petroleum Import Price Index from higher food prices and pipeline inflation pressure. The index was up 0.9% in June following a 0.7% increase in May. The y-o-y ex-Petroleum Import Price Index was 7.3% higher, after a 6.6% rate prior.

Higher food prices — which grew 2.2% in June after a 0.2% increase in May — should again boost the July Export Price Index. The July Ag-Price Index jumped 1.9%, though a selection of commodity prices fell. The y-o-y Food Export Price Index was up 33% in June following 33.7% growth in May, and the ex-Ag Export Price Index was up 6.4% in June following a 5.6% gain prior.

The July Import Price Index is expected to increase 1% following a 2.6% increase in both April and May. Y-o-Y import prices are expected to narrow marginally to 20.4%. Export Prices are expected to gain 0.6% following a 1% increase prior. Y-o-Y export prices were up 8.6% in June following a 8.1% rate in May.

Import prices are expected to show a marked deceleration in July in line with range-bound petroleum prices over the period. That should provide some relief from recent surges in the Petroleum Import Price Index (which gained 7.4% in June after an 8.9% increase in May and a 7.9% increase in April). The y-o-y Petroleum Import Price Index should pull back from the 78.6% rate in the June report.

There is continued upside risk to the ex-Petroleum Import Price Index from higher food prices and pipeline inflation pressure. The index was up 0.9% in June following a 0.7% increase in May. The y-o-y ex-Petroleum Import Price Index was 7.3% higher, after a 6.6% rate prior.

Higher food prices — which grew 2.2% in June after a 0.2% increase in May — should again boost the July Export Price Index. The July Ag-Price Index jumped 1.9%, though a selection of commodity prices fell. The y-o-y Food Export Price Index was up 33% in June following 33.7% growth in May, and the ex-Ag Export Price Index was up 6.4% in June following a 5.6% gain prior.

The June Import Price Index rose 2.6% following a downwardly revised 2.6% increase in May.

Petroleum import prices increased 7.4% following an upwardly revised 8.9% increase in May and an upwardly revised 7.9% increase in April. Natural gas import prices, up 9.9% in June, rose for a 9th consecutive month.

Imports ex-petroleum were up 0.9% following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in May. Industrial supply and material import prices were up 5.8% in June and are up over 50% on a yearly basis. The 12-month cumulative average for all imports prices was up 20.5% in June.

June export prices rose 1% following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in May. Ag export prices grew 2.2% following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in May. Ex-ag export prices were up 0.9% in June and the 12-month cumulative average for all export prices was up 8.6% in June.

The upward revisions to previous import price data will further complicate the FED’s price stability objective.

June import prices are expected to rise 2% following a 2.3% increase in May, a 2.4% increase in April and a 3% increase in March. This would reflect a y-o-y import price index increase of 18.6%.

June export prices are expected to rise 0.7% following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.5% increase in April. Y-o-Y export prices were up 8% in May while food export prices y-o-y in May was up a solid 33.3%.

Import prices are expected to once again outpace export prices in June largely due to USD deterioration and surging energy import prices. The goods news is that the lag in export price growth relative to import prices should boost the appeal of US assets overseas, which should help narrow the trade deficit.

The bad news is that import prices, especially energies, have shown few signs of relenting from their current growth pace which will squeeze consumer purchasing power even further.

The June import prices index should receive a shot in the arm from the 7% increase in petroleum prices over the period; petroleum import prices were up 7.8% in May following a 5.9% increase in April and a 9.8% increase in March. There is also the risk of an elevated level for import prices ex-petroleum as a result of pipeline inflation from previous reports.

June export prices should receive a boost from a 7% increase in ag-export prices while non-ag export prices are expected to increase 0.6%.

June import prices are expected to rise 2% following a 2.3% increase in May, a 2.4% increase in April and a 3% increase in March. This would reflect a y-o-y import price index increase of 18.6%.

June export prices are expected to rise 0.7% following a 0.3% increase in May and a 0.5% increase in April. Y-o-Y export prices were up 8% in May while food export prices y-o-y in May was up a solid 33.3%.

Import prices are expected to once again outpace export prices in June largely due to USD deterioration and surging energy import prices. The goods news is that the lag in export price growth relative to import prices should boost the appeal of US assets overseas, which should help narrow the trade deficit.

The bad news is that import prices, especially energies, have shown few signs of relenting from their current growth pace which will squeeze consumer purchasing power even further.

The June import prices index should receive a shot in the arm from the 7% increase in petroleum prices over the period; petroleum import prices were up 7.8% in May following a 5.9% increase in April and a 9.8% increase in March. There is also the risk of an elevated level for import prices ex-petroleum as a result of pipeline inflation from previous reports.

June export prices should receive a boost from a 7% increase in ag-export prices while non-ag export prices are expected to increase 0.6%.

May import prices rose 2.3% following a 2.4% increase in April and about in line with analysts’ expectations. The April index was revised up to a 2.4% increase from its previously reported 1.8% increase. Removing the 7.8% increase in petroleum products from the calculations leaves the nonpetroleum imports index up 0.5%, its smallest increase this year. The April measure of non-petroleum import prices was revised up to 1.3%.

Export prices rose 0.3%, its smallest increase since September. With agricultural product prices removed from the calculations, the export prices rose 0.4%. The price of exported agricultural products fell for the 2nd month in a row.

Import prices for non-fuel industrial products rose 1.4%, largely driven by price increases for metals. Capital goods rose 0.3% and imported motor vehicle prices were unchanged for the month. Prices of imported consumer goods — the ones most likely to impact increases in the CPI — showed a modest 0.2% increase after a 0.7% increase last month.

May Import Prices are forecast to increase 3% following a 1.8% rise in April. Export prices are seen 0.7% higher after the prior month’s 0.3% gain.

For import prices, the surge in Crude oil prices is seen as the key factor. Excluding petroleum, import prices are expected to rise 0.6%, slower than April’s 1.1% increase but still held up by high prices of other commodities and the lagged impact of a weaker dollar.

Exports ex-agriculture are not forecast to differ much from the headline figure, after the sharp rise in agriculture prices in the first quarter tailed off in April. Ex-ag exports are seen 0.6% higher, the same gain as in the prior month.

The Apr. Import Price Index increased 1.8%, which is slightly higher than consensus estimates but down from an upward revised 2.9% in Mar. The Import Price Index in Apr. was led higher by a 4.4% increase in the price of petroleum imports. Petroleum import prices y-o-y in Apr. were up 57.2%. Apr. Non-Petroleum import prices increased 1.1% and were led higher by a 3.3% increase in the price for non-petroleum industrial supplies and materials.

The twelve month cumulative average for all import prices was 15.4% in Apr., which is the largest recored increase since the Import Price Index was first published in ‘82.

Food import prices grew 0.4% in Apr. from an upward revised 2.8% increase in Mar. Prices for imported capital goods in Apr. grew 0.8% from an upward revised 0.1% increase in Mar. Prices for imported consumer goods in Apr. rose 0.2% from a 0.4% increase in Mar. Prices for Apr. imported industrial supplies and materials increased 3.9%.

Mar. export prices grew 0.3% from an unrevised 1.5% Mar. increase. Ex-Ag export prices increased 0.6% in Apr. from an upward revised 1.5% increase in Mar. Agriculture export prices fell a hefty 2.2% following an upward revised 4.2% increase in Mar. Prices for exported industrial supplies and materials grew 1.2%. Export prices were up 7.7% y-o-y in Apr.

Apr. Import Prices are expected to increase 1.6% following a 2.8% rise the prior month. Apr. Export Prices are expected to increase 0.5% following a 1.5% rise in Mar.

Apr. import prices are expected to be pushed higher by an expected 7% increase in the price of petroleum imports. Mar. petroleum import prices increased 9.1% in Mar. following a 1.9% decline in Feb.

Apr. import prices ex-petroleum, expected up 0.5%, face upside risks from continued USD weakness as and elevated food prices. Import Prices ex-petroleum increased 1.1% in Mar. following a 0.7% increase in Feb.

Apr. Export prices are expected to decelerate from their recent advance but should be well-supported by increases in food export prices. Food export prices increased 4.1% in Mar. while non-Ag export prices grew 1.2%.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fell in Apr. for the first time in almost a year, which puts downside risks on Apr. Ag-export prices. Apr. spot Ag prices also backed off their recent heights.