Need To Know News

The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Index was unchanged at 19 in April, matching the all-time low reached last month.

The index was down 10 points on a y-o-y basis as help-wanted advertising declined in all 9 US regions. The biggest drops were in New England (-26.8%), the South Atlantic region (-20.5%) and the Pacific region (-19.8%), according to the Conference Board.

“The economy is still weak and job losses will likely continue through the summer at a slow pace. While it won’t get much worse, it will be a while before things get better,” said Conference Board labor economist Ken Goldstein.

Offering a potential explanation for the 16yr low in Consumer Confidence, Goldstein said the “prolonged period of slow economic growth and no job growth is feeding a sense of frustration.”

The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Index fell 2 points in March to 19, a new record low. Analysts were expecting the index to fall 1 point to 20. The Help Wanted Index stood at 29 in Mar-07.

Conference Board Labor Economist Ken Goldstein predicted the labor market will worsen before it improves, saying, “The cumulative impact of the housing crisis, financial market turmoil, higher energy and other prices is slowing the overall economy and resulting in job cuts and reduced hiring intentions with the prospect that declines may steepen.”

Help-wanted advertising declined in all 9 US regions over the past 3 months, with the steepest declines occurring in the East North Central (down 20.3%), West North Central (down 18.1%), and East South Central (down 16.7%) regions.

The March Help Wanted Index will be released tomorrow at 10:00am. Analysts estimate the index will fall to 20 from a Feb. reading of 21.

Feb.’s reading of 21 matched November’s level as the all-time low for the index. Except for small upticks in Sept. and Dec. of 2007, the Index has been trending lower since Dec. 2006. Last time around the Board’s head labor economist said, “More regions are experiencing economic distress and the impact is now evident in labor markets,” and added that in the last 3 months there has been “very little profit growth, and virtually no job growth.”

The relevancy of the Help Wanted Index as an indicator has been questioned since the Conference Board announced it will no longer be publishing the Index after July 1, 2008 earlier this month . In explaining the cancellation, the research group admitted “print advertising no longer comprehensively captures changes in labor-market demand.”

The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Index dropped 1 point in Feb. to 21, higher than expected. The Jan. Help Wanted Index was revised up 1 point to 22.

The Board’s head labor economist said, “More regions are experiencing economic distress and the impact is now evident in labor markets,” and added that in the last 3 months there has been “very little profit growth, and virtually no job growth.”

Over the past 3 months help-wanted ads have dropped in 7 of 9 geographic regions with the East South Central (-12.5%), Pacific (-11%), and New England (-9.3%) leading the drop.

The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Index declined to 21 in Jan., as analysts had expected. The Index stood at 31 in Jan-07. Within the past 3 months, help-wanted advertising fell in 5 of 9 regions in the US, with noteworthy declines in the East South Central (-16.3%), Pacific (-12.2%), and South Atlantic (-5.3%) regions.

Conference Board Labor Economist Ken Goldstein pointed to falling consumer confidence and rising food, energy, and housing costs as discouraging signs for the US economy, saying “what’s important is that people are behaving as if a recession is already here.”

Goldstein is very pessimistic about prospects for the labor market, remarking there is no chance the market will improve in the coming months and there is even a possibility the labor market could grind to a halt.

The Conference Board Helped Wanted Index grew 1 point to 22 after a reading of 33 last year. In the last 3 months help wanted ads declined in 8 of 9 US regions with the steepest declines in the Pacific and South Atlantic.

Fewer job prospects have lead to nervous consumer attitudes and spending patterns, and reduced business spending has made employers less willing to offer higher paid positions, according to Conference Board labor economist Ken Goldstein.

Goldstein says there are “pockets of the nation in recession”– New York, Michigan, Indiana, New Jersey — but did not forecast a national recession unless labor market weakness spreads further, into the broader economy. Goldstein believes the data through December do not suggest a recession.

The November Help Wanted Index fell to 21, 2 points lower than the previous reading and 2 points lower than analysts expected. The Index fell 8 points y-o-y from its November 2006 reading of 29. All nine U.S. regions posted declines in help-wanted advertising, with the Pacific, Mountain, and West North Central showing declines of over 12%. Online help-wanted advertising fell 2.1%. Ken Goldstein, the Conference Board’s labor economist, is concerned about continued weakness in the labor market, remarking “the forward indicators of labor market activity are consistent with slowing growth.”

The Conference Board’s October Help Wanted Index came in as expected at 23, down from September’s reading of 24 and last October’s reading of 29.  The number of jobs advertised online fell 108,300, or 2.5%.  There was a widespread decrease in help wanted advertising nationwide as all nine U.S. regions posted declines, though the steepest occurred in the Pacific, West North Central, and East North Central regions.  The Conference Board’s labor economist Ken Goldstein noted that this is a consequence of a slowing economy, citing uninspiring readings of the Coincident Economic Index, Leading Economic Indicators, and Consumer Confidence.  Goldstein does remark that a silver lining lies in the forward indicators of labor market activity, which show signs of flattening rather than declining.  He does note, however, that this suggests slow labor market growth until the first quarter of 2008.

The Conference Board reports their September Help Wanted Index now stands at 24, up 1 from the August figure but down from a 29 reading a year ago. The proportion of Labor Markets with Rising Ad Volume was 57%. Over the last 3 months Help Wanted Index has fallen in 8 of 9 regions with the largest decline in New England (down 12%) followed by the East North Central Region (large mid-western cities,-10.8%) with losses spread across the country on the order of down 10.5% on average. September Online Advertising Vacancies were up 4% from the August data. There were 2.78 job vacancies advertised for every 100 people in the labor force.

The Conference Board reports its Help Wanted Index fell to 23 in, the third month in a row of lower Help Wanted Advertising and down from a 29 reading last AUGUST. The Conference Board reports all nine reporting regions declined with the largest loss in New England which fell 25.4%, followed by the South Atlantic Region, down 18.4% and the Mid-Atlantic Region which was down 16.9%. The downturn in the index is attributed to the housing market slump with significantly less buying and building occurring, higher gas prices, tighter credit conditions and a loss of consumer confidence.