Need To Know News

Existing Home Sales increased 5.5% to a 5.18mln annual rate in September, better than the 4.95mln expected and after 4.91mln in August. This represented the highest sales rate in 13 months and the biggest jump in sales since Jul-03. Y-o-Y, sales increased 1.4%, the first rise since Nov-05.

Single-family home sales increased 6.2% while condo sales were unchanged. The median price of homes dropped 9% y-o-y to $191,600, the lowest since Apr-04.

Inventories of unsold homes fell 1.6% to 4.27mln, representing a 9.9 months’ supply.

Three out of four regions showed increases in sales with the West rising 16.8%. Only the Northeast showed a decline (down 1.2%). Prices dropped in all four regions, led by the West (down 18.5%). Distressed sales continue to account for 35-40% of total sales.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that lower prices were bringing more buyers into the market. He added that 80% of homes bought were used as primary residences, higher than the 75% historical norm.

On the wider economy, Yun said the US has “clearly tipped into a recession.”

• September Existing Home Sales are expected to fall marginally to 4.9mln units annualized following a 2.2% decline to 4.88mln units annualized in August

The market meltdown poses severe downside risks to existing home sales in September, as breakdowns in negotiations and transactions are very likely to have surged over the reference period. Further deterioration n the availability of credit, combined with extended losses in equities and increasingly difficult job market conditions could potential push many “on the fence” buyers off the fence. Even with some moderation in mortgage rates and further declines in house prices, potential buyers that may or are likely to be further outnumbered by potential sellers willing to sell their homes at a severe discount — a practice that, without the availability of credit, will yield higher inventories.

Related data:
• August Existing Home Inventories fell 2.9% reflecting a 10.4 month’s supply
• The Median Existing Home Sales price fell 9.5% to $203.1k in August
• The Average Existing Home Sales Price fell 8.9% to $245.4 in August
• The August Pending Home Sale Index gained 7.4%
• The October NAHB Housing Market Index fell to a record low of 14 from 17 in September

Existing Home Sales fell 2.2% to a 4.91mln annual rate in August, worse than the 4.94mln expected and after an upwardly revised 5.02mln pace in July (previously 5mln). Sales were down 10.7% from a year ago.

Single-family home sales declined 1.4% in August while condo sales tumbled 8.2%. The median price of homes was $203,100, down 9.5% on an annual basis – the biggest drop since 1999.

Inventories of unsold homes fell 7% to 4.26mln, representing a 10.4-month supply. It was the biggest decline in inventories since Dec-06. (NB: These figures are not seasonally adjusted. Winter months typically show a greater drop in inventories.)

The Midwest and South showed slight upticks in sales but the Northeast fell 6.6% and and the West dropped 5.3%. The biggest price declines were in the West (down 23.9%). Foreclosure and short sales still account for 35%-40% of total nationwide sales, the NAR said.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the sales declines to tougher lending standards before the Fannie and Freddie bailout. He noted that mortgage rates have fallen 50bps since the government takeover. The NAR is sending a letter to Congress today supporting the $700bln bailout but advocating what it called “responsible government intervention.”

• August Existing Home Sales are expected to fall 1.2% to 4.94mln annualized after gaining 3% to 5mln in July

Housing market conditions — especially residential –continued to deteriorate in August as rising defaults added to the already-elevated inventory of unsold homes. Teeming inventories and the corresponding fall in prices are unlikely to have boosted the anemic market. Potential buyers will be further limited by continued credit market tightness and a deteriorating economic landscape that eventually led to the collapse of GSEs Freddie and Fannie in August.

Related data:
• The July Pending Home Sales Index fell 3.2%
• The July House Price Index fell 0.6%
• The NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 18 in September from 16 in August
• 30yr fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.5% in August, which did not support improvements in the lending market

• August Existing Home Sales are expected to fall 1.2% to 4.94mln annualized after gaining 3% to 5mln in July

Housing market conditions — especially residential –continued to deteriorate in August as rising defaults added to the already-elevated inventory of unsold homes. Teeming inventories and the corresponding fall in prices are unlikely to have boosted the anemic market. Potential buyers will be further limited by continued credit market tightness and a deteriorating economic landscape that eventually led to the collapse of GSEs Freddie and Fannie in August.

Related data:
• The July Pending Home Sales Index fell 3.2%
• The July House Price Index fell 0.6%
• The NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 18 in September from 16 in August
• 30yr fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.5% in August, which did not support improvements in the lending market

Existing Home Sales rose 3.1% to a 5mln annual rate in July – better than expected, and after a downwardly revised 4.85mln pace in June. Sales were down 13.2% from a year ago.

Single-family home sales rose 3.1% in July while condo sales increased 3.4%.

Despite the uptick in sales, inventories of unsold homes on the market rose 3.9% to a record 4.67mln, representing a 11.2-month supply (tying the all-time high in April). Although inventories of single-family homes were relatively unchanged, condo inventories jumped almost 25% to an all-time high, likely due to the impact of new construction coming onto the market, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Three out of four regions showed increases in sales with the Northeast up 5.9%, the Midwest rising 0.9%, the West jumping 9.7%. Sales in the South fell 0.5%.

The median price of an existing home was down 7.1% y-o-y to $212,400 in July.

July Existing Home Sales, released at 10:00am EDT by the National Association of Realtors, are expected to rise 0.9% to a 4.91mln annual rate following a 4.86mln annual rate in June.

The median existing home sales price rose to $215,100 but is down 6.1% from a year ago. Inventories rose 0.2% and represented an 11.1-month supply of unsold homes in the market.

Single-family Existing Home Sales fell 3.2% in June but multi-family units showed a 1.7% jump.

Tighter credit conditions and tougher lending practices are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to obtain mortgages. In addition, the slow pace of economic growth is likely to keep home sales subdued for some time.

Other recent housing data:
* June New Home Sales fell 0.6% to a 530k annual rate
* The June Pending Home Sales Index increased 5.3% to 89
* August NAHB Housing Market Index remained unchanged at 16

July Existing Home Sales, released at 10:00am EDT by the National Association of Realtors, are expected to rise 0.9% to a 4.91mln annual rate following a 4.86mln annual rate in June.

The median existing home sales price rose to $215,100 but is down 6.1% from a year ago. Inventories rose 0.2% and represented an 11.1-month supply of unsold homes in the market.

Single-family Existing Home Sales fell 3.2% in June but multi-family units showed a 1.7% jump.

Tighter credit conditions and tougher lending practices are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to obtain mortgages. In addition, the slow pace of economic growth is likely to keep home sales subdued for some time.

Other recent housing data:
* June New Home Sales fell 0.6% to a 530k annual rate
* The June Pending Home Sales Index increased 5.3% to 89
* August NAHB Housing Market Index remained unchanged at 16

Note: July New Home Sales will be released Tuesday at 10:00am EDT.

Existing Home Sales fell 2.6% to a 4.86mln annual rate in June — a 10yr low, and below May’s unrevised 4.99mln pace.

Inventories of unsold homes on the market rose 0.2% to 4.49mln homes, an 11.1 month-supply. The national median home sales price was $215,100, up slightly from May and the highest this year, but still down 6% lower on a y-o-y basis.

Single-family home sales dropped 3.2% in June and were 14% lower than Jun-07. Condo sales rose 1.7%.

Sales fell in the Northeast (-6.6%), South (-3.1%), and Midwest (-3.4%), but edged up 1% in the West in the face of a whopping 17% decline in prices. Prices fell 12.6% in the Northeast, 2% in the South, and rose 2.8% in the Midwest.

One-third of June sales were foreclosed homes and short sales, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Yet he tried to sound an optimistic note, saying price declines are luring some buyers into the market and the US may be “very near ending the housing downturn and starting the recovery.”

But he also noted that some healthy markets such as the Pacific Northwest and Texas — where affordability and labor demand are strong — saw a drop-off in sales last month. “It’s a little puzzling,” he said.

Yun also said he was very pleased with the progress of the housing bill, saying it would help stabilize the market.