Need To Know News

Existing Home Sales fell 2.6% to a 4.86mln annual rate in June — a 10yr low, and below May’s unrevised 4.99mln pace.

Inventories of unsold homes on the market rose 0.2% to 4.49mln homes, an 11.1 month-supply. The national median home sales price was $215,100, up slightly from May and the highest this year, but still down 6% lower on a y-o-y basis.

Single-family home sales dropped 3.2% in June and were 14% lower than Jun-07. Condo sales rose 1.7%.

Sales fell in the Northeast (-6.6%), South (-3.1%), and Midwest (-3.4%), but edged up 1% in the West in the face of a whopping 17% decline in prices. Prices fell 12.6% in the Northeast, 2% in the South, and rose 2.8% in the Midwest.

One-third of June sales were foreclosed homes and short sales, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Yet he tried to sound an optimistic note, saying price declines are luring some buyers into the market and the US may be “very near ending the housing downturn and starting the recovery.”

But he also noted that some healthy markets such as the Pacific Northwest and Texas — where affordability and labor demand are strong — saw a drop-off in sales last month. “It’s a little puzzling,” he said.

Yun also said he was very pleased with the progress of the housing bill, saying it would help stabilize the market.

June Existing Home Sales, released at 10:00am EDT by the National Association of Realtors, are expected to fall 1% to a 4.94mln annual rate following a 4.99mln annual rate in May.

If sales are in line with expectations, the data will reverse May’s upward blip and put existing homes back on the downward path they’ve been on for a year (with the exception of February’s gain).

Single-family Existing Home Sales rose 1.6% in May but are down 14.5% year on year basis the May data.  The median existing home sales price rose to $208,600 (still down 6.3% from last year). Inventories fell 1.4% to a 10.8-month supply of unsold homes in the market.

Rising mortgage rates and tightening credit conditions (June Beige Book) over the past month have put downward pressure on home sales.  Hopes for a housing market bottom may themselves be bottoming out with tighter credit conditions, fewer types of mortgages available and cratering consumer sentiment measures.

Other recent housing data:

* May New Home Sales fell 2.5% to a 512k annual rate from a downwardly revised 1.9% increase to 525k the prior month

* The May Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.7% to 84.7

* July NAHB Housing Market Index fell to a record low 16

NB: June New Home Sales will be released Friday at 10:00am EDT.

June Existing Home Sales, released at 10:00am EDT tomorrow by the National Association of Realtors, are expected to fall 1% to a 4.94mln annual rate following a 4.99mln annual rate in May.

If sales are in line with expectations, the data will reverse May’s upward blip and put existing homes back on the downward path they’ve been on for a year (with the exception of February’s gain).

Single-family Existing Home Sales rose 1.6% in May but are down 14.5% year on year basis the May data.  The median existing home sales price rose to $208,600 (still down 6.3% from last year). Inventories fell 1.4% to a 10.8-month supply of unsold homes in the market.

Rising mortgage rates and tightening credit conditions (June Beige Book) over the past month have put downward pressure on home sales.  Hopes for a housing market bottom may themselves be bottoming out with tighter credit conditions, fewer types of mortgages available and cratering consumer sentiment measures.

Other recent housing data:

* May New Home Sales fell 2.5% to a 512k annual rate from a downwardly revised 1.9% increase to 525k the prior month

* The May Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.7% to 84.7

* July NAHB Housing Market Index fell to a record low 16

NB: June New Home Sales will be released Friday at 10:00am EDT.

May existing home sales increased 2% percent to an annual rate of 4.99mln vs. an upwardly revised 4.89mln in April and slightly better than the 4.95mln analysts expected. Year-over-year existing home sales are down 15.9% compared to the 5.93mln sales pace in May ‘07.

The median price for all housing types was $208,600 in May, which is down 6.3% from last year. The median price of a single-family home was $200,700, down 6.8% from last May. Condo sales were up 5.5% in May, but are still down 24.6% year-over-year. Condo median prices were down 2.1% from May of last year.

Inventories of unsold homes in May fell 1.4% to 4.94 million, which reflects a 10.8 months supply at the current sales rate down from 11.2 in April.

Single family home sales increased 1.6% in May with three out of four reporting regions posting improved sales figures.

May Existing Home Sales are expected to rise 1.2% to a 4.95mln annual rate following a 1% decline to 4.89mln annualized last month. Single-family existing home sales fell 0.5% in March and multi-family existing home sales decreased 5.2%.

The median existing home sales price in April was down 8% y-o-y to $202,300. Existing home inventories were up 10.5% y-o-y in March, reflecting a 11.2-month supply of unsold existing homes in the market.

Rising mortgage rates and tight credit are likely to have continued to weigh on housing sales and inventories. However, there are signs that the housing market may be bottoming, and the expected increase in Existing Home Sales would reflect that. The California Association of Realtors reported that California homes sales rose 18% y-o-y in May, but median prices were down 35% y-o-y — indicating that price drops are finally spurring a pickup in sales.

Other recent housing data:
* May New Home Sales fell 2.5% to 512k annualized following a downwardly revised 1.9% increase to 525k annualized the prior month.
* The April Pending Home Sales Index gained 6.3% to 88.2 after a record low 83.0 reading in March
* June NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 18 following a reading of 19 in May

May Existing Home Sales are expected to rise 1.2% to a 4.95mln annual rate following a 1% decline to 4.89mln annualized last month. Single-family existing home sales fell 0.5% in March and multi-family existing home sales decreased 5.2%.

The median existing home sales price in April was down 8% y-o-y to $202,300. Existing home inventories were up 10.5% y-o-y in March, reflecting a 11.2-month supply of unsold existing homes in the market.

Rising mortgage rates and tight credit are likely to have continued to weigh on housing sales and inventories. However, there are signs that the housing market may be bottoming, and the expected increase in Existing Home Sales would reflect that. The California Association of Realtors reported that California homes sales rose 18% y-o-y in May, but median prices were down 35% y-o-y — indicating that price drops are finally spurring a pickup in sales.

Other recent housing data:
* May New Home Sales fell 2.5% to 512k annualized following a downwardly revised 1.9% increase to 525k annualized the prior month.
* The April Pending Home Sales Index gained 6.3% to 88.2 after a record low 83.0 reading in March
* June NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 18 following a reading of 19 in May

The April Existing Home Sales fell 1% to an annual rate of 4.89mln, slightly better than analysts had expected but down from an upwardly revised 4.94mln in March. Y-o-Y existing home sales were down 17.5% compared to a 5.93mln sales pace in Apr-07.

The national median sales price was $202,300, down 8% compared to April of last year. The median price of a single-family home was $200,700, down 8.5% from last April, and the Condo median price was down 3.7% to $214,900.

Inventories of unsold homes in April rose 10.5% to 4.55mln, 11.2 months’ supply at the current sales rate and the highest supply since the combined single-family and condo series began in 1999. Existing single family home inventories, at a 10.7 months- supply level, are at their highest since ‘85.

Single-family home sales declined 0.5% with sales dropping in the Northeast and the Midwest but rising in the South and West. Median prices of single-family homes fell in all 4 geographic regions.

Condo sales in April were down 5.2% but showed an increase in the Northeast that was offset by double-digit declines in the Midwest and South and no change in the West. Condo prices fell in all geographic regions except the Northeast, where they were unchanged.

Some markets that have seen very large price declines in the past year saw significant y-o-y sales gains in April, including Detroit, Las Vegas, and several areas in California. However, sales decline in some areas that previously had relatively stable prices.

April Existing Home Sales are expected to fall 1.6% to 4.85mln annualized following a 2% decline to 4.93mln annualized last month. Single-family existing home sales fell 2.7% in March and multi-family existing home sales increased 3.6%.

The median existing home sales price in March was down 7.7% y-o-y to $200,700, and the average existing home sales price was down 6.6% y-o-y to $247,700. Existing home inventories were up 6.65% y-o-y in March, reflecting a 9.88-month supply of unsold existing homes in the market.

Recently published data relating to existing home sales has been indicative of continued strife in the US housing market which does not reflect well on the market for existing home sales in April. Inventories of existing homes remains elevated which should lead to continued declines in house prices going forward. The 7.7% decline in median existing home prices over the year has yet to induce a noticeable reduction in inventories.

Other recent housing data:

* March New Home Sales fell 8.5% to 526k annualized following a downwardly revised 5.3% decrease to 575k annualized the prior month.
* The March Pending Home Sales Index fell 1% after a downwardly revised 2.8% decline the prior month.
* The May NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 19 after posting readings of 20 each of the prior 3 months.

Consumer sentiment indicators also remained depressed over the period — indicating no upturn in homebuying over the period.

April Existing Home Sales are expected to fall 1.6% to 4.85mln annualized following a 2% decline to 4.93mln annualized last month. Single-family existing home sales fell 2.7% in March and multi-family existing home sales increased 3.6%.

The median existing home sales price in March was down 7.7% y-o-y to $200,700, and the average existing home sales price was down 6.6% y-o-y to $247,700. Existing home inventories were up 6.65% y-o-y in March, reflecting a 9.88-month supply of unsold existing homes in the market.

Recently published data relating to existing home sales has been indicative of continued strife in the US housing market which does not reflect well on the market for existing home sales in April. Inventories of existing homes remains elevated which should lead to continued declines in house prices going forward. The 7.7% decline in median existing home prices over the year has yet to induce a noticeable reduction in inventories.

Other recent housing data:

* March New Home Sales fell 8.5% to 526k annualized following a downwardly revised 5.3% decrease to 575k annualized the prior month.
* The March Pending Home Sales Index fell 1% after a downwardly revised 2.8% decline the prior month.
* The May NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 19 after posting readings of 20 each of the prior 3 months.

Consumer sentiment indicators also remained depressed over the period — indicating no upturn in homebuying over the period.

Mar. Existing Home Sales fell 2% to an annual rate of 4.93mln, from 5.03mln in Feb. The 4.93mln in Mar. was 19.3% lower than the 6.11mln annual rate last year.

The nationwide median existing home price was $200,700 in Mar., 7.7% lower than the $217,400 total a year earlier.

Total housing inventory grew 1% to 4.06mln which represents a 9.9-month supply at the current sales pace.

The rate on a 30yr fixed-rate mortgage grew to 5.97% in Mar. from 5.92% in Feb.

Mar. Single family homes sales fell 2.7% to 4.35mln units annualized from 4.47mln in Feb. The median existing family home price was $198,200 in Mar., a 8.3% drop from a year earlier.

Existing condo sales in Mar. grew 3.6% to 580,000 units from 560,000 units in Feb. and 779,000 units a year ago.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said tighter lending standards are preventing “on the fence” buyers from taking advantage of historically low rates. Yun said the 30yr mortgage rate may be near a bottom and further FED rate reductions are not likely to lower mortgage rates. He even cautioned the FED that additional rate cuts could allow inflation to creep in, pushing mortgage rates higher.