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The July Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -8.0 from -8.7 in June. The June New Orders Index was -5.48 compared to -0.46 in May and the Shipments Index fell to -6.54 from 4.55 previously. The June Prices Paid Index decreased to 66.28 from 69.57 in May, while the Prices Received increased to 26.74 from 15.22 in May. The June Employment Index came in at 1.16 while the Work Week Index registered a -2.33 reading.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of -15.0 to -0.1 with an average estimate at -7.2.

The June Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in July including: ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index.

The June Empire State Manufacturing Index fell 5 points to -8.7.

The Prices Paid Index backed off of its high in May, though remained elevated at at 66.3 with 69% of respondents reporting higher prices. The Prices Received Index gained 11 bps to 26.7.

The New Orders Index fell to -5.5, its sixth consecutive month in negative territory. The Shipments Index fell 11bps to -6.5, the Unfilled Orders Index fell to -10.5 and the Inventories Index came in at -2.3.

The Employment Indices were little changed with both the Employees Index and the Average Workweek Index with readings around zero.

Forward looking indices showed subtle improvements in May, however remained subdued.

The June Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -1.8 from -3.2 in May. The May New Orders Index was -0.5 and the Shipments Index fell to 4.6 from 17.5 previously. The May Prices Paid Index increased to 69.57 from 57.29 in April, while the Prices Received dropped to 15.22 from 20.83 in April. Both the May Employment and Work Week indices came in at 1.09.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of -8 to 7 with an average estimate at -1.3.

The June Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in June including: June ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index. All the aforementioned indices are expected to show modest improvements in June when factoring in current estimates for the NY FED Index. A lower-than-expected reading is likely to yield downward revision to forecasts for the other major manufacturing reports.

The June Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -1.8 from -3.2 in May. The May New Orders Index was -0.5 and the Shipments Index fell to 4.6 from 17.5 previously. The May Prices Paid Index increased to 69.57 from 57.29 in April, while the Prices Received dropped to 15.22 from 20.83 in April. Both the May Employment and Work Week indices came in at 1.09.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of -8 to 7 with an average estimate at -1.3.

The June Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in June including: June ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index. All the aforementioned indices are expected to show modest improvements in June when factoring in current estimates for the NY FED Index. A lower-than-expected reading is likely to yield downward revision to forecasts for the other major manufacturing reports.

The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in at -3.2 versus and expected 0.0 reading and against a positive 0.6 last time.

The new orders index remained came in at -0.5 and the shipments index at 4.6 was down sharply.

The prices paid index exceeded its earlier record high by a wide margin, reaching 69.6, while the prices received index dipped several points.

Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally low and down from last month’s levels, suggesting that the outlook for the next six months remains subdued, particularly for employment.

Supplementary questions in the May survey focused on past and expected changes in the prices that firms pay for inputs and the prices that they charge their customers. Respondents estimated that the prices they paid had risen 8.7 percent, on average, over the past twelve months, and they expected such prices to rise by an average of 6.8 percent over the next twelve months. In contrast, firms’ selling prices were reported to have risen by an average of just 2.9 percent over the past twelve months, but were expected to accelerate for a 4.1 percent increase over the next twelve months.

The May Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 0 from 0.6 in Apr. and -22.23 in Mar., which was the lowest reading since the survey’s inception in ’01.

The Empire FED Index’s New Orders, Employment, and Work Week components were all unchanged in Apr. Prices Received were 20.83 and Prices Paid were 57.29, the highest reading since ’05.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimates from an index reading of 10 to -10 with an average estimate at -1.2.

Even with a benign reading in May, the Empire State index would still be performing better than expected given the recessionary landscape in the US economy, especially in the manufacturing sector.

Recent sentiment reports continue to show readings better than those typically associated with recession. Nonetheless, consumer confidence waned marginally in Apr. according to both the Conference Board and U of M consumer confidence reports.

Higher import prices and energy costs for manufacturers should be mitigated somewhat by an increase in exports as the weak USD has boosted the appeal of American goods abroad.

The May Empire State Index will set the stage for the May ISM manufacturing index as well as Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index. All the aforementioned indices are expected to show modest improvements in May when factoring in current estimates for the NY FED Index. A lower-than-expected reading is likely to yield downward revision to forecasts for the other major manufacturing reports.

The May Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 0 from 0.6 in Apr. and -22.23 in Mar., which was the lowest reading since the survey’s inception in ’01.

The Empire FED Index’s New Orders, Employment, and Work Week components were all unchanged in Apr. Prices Received were 20.83 and Prices Paid were 57.29, the highest reading since ’05.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of 10 to -10 with an average estimate at -1.2.

Even with a benign reading in May, the Empire State index would still be performing better than expected given the recessionary landscape in the US economy, especially in the manufacturing sector.

Recent sentiment reports continue to show readings better than those typically associated with recession. Nonetheless, consumer confidence waned marginally in Apr. according to both the Conference Board and U of M consumer confidence reports.

Higher import prices and energy costs for manufacturers should be mitigated somewhat by an increase in exports as the weak USD has boosted the appeal of American goods abroad.

The May Empire State Index will set the stage for the May ISM manufacturing index as well as Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index. All the aforementioned indices are expected to show modest improvements in May when factoring in current estimates for the NY FED Index. A lower-than-expected reading is likely to yield downward revision to forecasts for the other major manufacturing reports.

The Apr. Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed a sharp improvement from March to April with the General Business Conditions index coming in a 0.6, 23 points higher than the March reading and well above the expected -17 level.

New Orders essentially came back to flat at 0.06, a slight improvement on the -4.69 reading in March.

The Shipments Index reversed course as well, coming in at 17.49 vs. -5.20 in March.

The Unfilled Orders Index fell 7 points to -6.3.

The Prices Paid Index was up for the 4th consecutive month at 57.3, its highest level since Nov-05, with 59% of respondents reporting higher prices. Prices Rec’d were up 5 points to 20.8.

Indices for Employees and Average Workweek were at 0.

The survey indicates a weakened outlook on the part of respondents with the Future General Business Conditions Index at 19.6, near a record low. The Capital Expenditures Index fell to 11.5, the lowest level since 2003.

The Apr. Empire FED Manufacturing Index is expected at -17 after a -22.2 reading in March, which was the lowest since the survey’s inception in ’01. The Mar. Empire Prices Paid Index was 50.56, the New Orders Index was -4.69, and the Shipments Index was -5.2.

The Empire State Index can be difficult to predict given the lack of available April data. The Index will help set the tone for forthcoming manufacturing reports which include: The Philly FED Index, expected at -14 from -17.4 in Mar; Chicago PMI, expected at 50 in Apr. from 48.2 in Mar. and the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected at 49 in Apr. from 48.6 prior.

The Mar. Empire State Index adjusted for ISM improved to 49.3 from 48.2 in Feb. despite the hefty drop in the headline NY FED Index. An Apr. Empire FED Index reading that exceeds or fall short of expectations is likely to lead to some revised estimates for forthcoming Apr. Manufacturing data.

Even though data pertinent to the Apr. Empire State Index is limited, the continued uptrend in business inventories relative to sales indicates continued weakness in manufacturing. Sales growth tends to lag growth in inventories by roughly half a year and the recent buildup in inventories has been further supported by declining sales. Increasing inventories relative to sales has led to a build up similar to recent downturns in the business cycle. Available inventory and sales data per industry include:

–Feb. Business Inventories up 0.6%, Sales down 1.1%
–Feb. Factory Inventories up 0.5%, Sales down 2.1%
–Feb. Durable Goods Inventories up 0.5%, Sales down 2.7%
–Feb. Wholesale Inventories up 1.1%, Sales down 0.8%
–Feb. Retail Inventories up 0.2%, Sales down 0.4%

While these indicators may have experienced a slight rebound since Feb., trends from these data indicate a continued contraction in the US manufacturing industry. The Apr. Empire State Index is expected to rebound from its historical low in Mar. but is likely to still yield a reading indicative of contraction.

The Apr. Empire Fed Index reading may receive a boost from strength in exports as a result of USD weakness; though increasing overseas demand is unlikely to completely mitigate declining domestic sales.

The Apr. Empire FED Manufacturing Index is expected at -17 after a -22.2 reading in March, which was the lowest since the survey’s inception in ’01. The Mar. Empire Prices Paid Index was 50.56, the New Orders Index was -4.69, and the Shipments Index was -5.2.

The Empire State Index can be difficult to predict given the lack of available April data. The Index will help set the tone for forthcoming manufacturing reports which include: The Philly FED Index, expected at -14 from -17.4 in Mar; Chicago PMI, expected at 50 in Apr. from 48.2 in Mar. and the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected at 49 in Apr. from 48.6 prior.

The Mar. Empire State Index adjusted for ISM improved to 49.3 from 48.2 in Feb. despite the hefty drop in the headline NY FED Index. An Apr. Empire FED Index reading that exceeds or fall short of expectations is likely to lead to some revised estimates for forthcoming Apr. Manufacturing data.

Even though data pertinent to the Apr. Empire State Index is limited, the continued uptrend in business inventories relative to sales indicates continued weakness in manufacturing. Sales growth tends to lag growth in inventories by roughly half a year and the recent buildup in inventories has been further supported by declining sales. Increasing inventories relative to sales has led to a build up similar to recent downturns in the business cycle. Available inventory and sales data per industry include:

–Feb. Business Inventories up 0.6%, Sales down 1.1%
–Feb. Factory Inventories up 0.5%, Sales down 2.1%
–Feb. Durable Goods Inventories up 0.5%, Sales down 2.7%
–Feb. Wholesale Inventories up 1.1%, Sales down 0.8%
–Feb. Retail Inventories up 0.2%, Sales down 0.4%

While these indicators may have experienced a slight rebound since Feb., trends from these data indicate a continued contraction in the US manufacturing industry. The Apr. Empire State Index is expected to rebound from its historical low in Mar. but is likely to still yield a reading indicative of contraction.

The Apr. Empire Fed Index reading may receive a boost from strength in exports as a result of USD weakness; though increasing overseas demand is unlikely to completely mitigate declining domestic sales.