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The Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to 2.8 in August from -4.9 in July, reflecting marginal improvements for New York manufacturers over the period. The New Orders Index slipped to -2.2 in July and the Shipments Index also came in lower at -0.9.

The Prices Paid Index backed off its July record high, but remained elevated at 65.2. The Future Prices Paid Index came in at an all time record in July. 67% of survey respondents reported higher prices over the period, while 42% cited the cost of resources as their main issue.

Specific issues complicating New York manufactures included the cost of resources and the cost of employee benefits. Manufactures were much more concerned with prices compared to last year when employment concerns topped the list; however, the employment indices remained weak in July. The Number of Employees Index came in at -4.5 in July and the Average Workweek Index came in at 1.1. The inventories Index came in at 5.6.

The August Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -4.2 from -4.9 in July. The July New Orders Index was 8.27 compared to -5.48 in May and the Shipments Index improved to 13.54 from -6.54 previously. The July Prices Paid Index increased to a record high 77.89 from 66.27 in June, while the Prices Received also rose to an all-time high of 32.63 from 26.75 prior.

The July Employment Index came in at -6.32 while the Workweek Index registered -8.42. Future Business Conditions plunged to 15.55, the lowest reading since Sept-01.

The Empire FED Index is the first of 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have issued a range of estimates from an index reading of -11 to zero with an average estimate at -4.3.

The Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in the month, including ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index.

The July Empire State Manufacturing Index rose slightly from last month’s reading but remains in negative territory at -4.9, the 6th consecutive month of near zero or negative results.

Prices Paid came in at a record 77.9 with better than 3/4 of respondents reporting higher prices. Prices Received also recorded a record high at 32.6 with 41% of respondents reporting they had raised prices.

Employment Indexes were also reported lower with Number of Employees Index coming in at -6.3 and Average Workweek Index at -8.4.

Future Business Conditions cratered to 15.6 (down 17 points), the lowest level since Sept-01.

The New York FED, in a supplemental report, asked respondents to estimate the percentage change in their firm’s sales and employment levels from 2007 to 2008. For calendar year 2007 firms reported a 6% increase in sales and expected 0% in 2008. Firms also reported 0% change in number of employees for both 2007 and for their 2008 estimates.

The NY FED also asked to what extent the increased cost of enery and other commodities caused them to scale back production; 27.5% said somewhat; 8.8% said substantially. 54.8% of respondents said they had to charge higher prices due the higher energy and commodity prices; 29% reported substantial increases.

The July Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -8.0 from -8.7 in June. The June New Orders Index was -5.48 compared to -0.46 in May and the Shipments Index fell to -6.54 from 4.55 previously. The June Prices Paid Index decreased to 66.28 from 69.57 in May, while the Prices Received increased to 26.74 from 15.22 in May. The June Employment Index came in at 1.16 while the Work Week Index registered a -2.33 reading.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of -15.0 to -0.1 with an average estimate at -7.2.

The June Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in July including: ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index.

The July Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -8.0 from -8.7 in June. The June New Orders Index was -5.48 compared to -0.46 in May and the Shipments Index fell to -6.54 from 4.55 previously. The June Prices Paid Index decreased to 66.28 from 69.57 in May, while the Prices Received increased to 26.74 from 15.22 in May. The June Employment Index came in at 1.16 while the Work Week Index registered a -2.33 reading.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of -15.0 to -0.1 with an average estimate at -7.2.

The June Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in July including: ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index.

The June Empire State Manufacturing Index fell 5 points to -8.7.

The Prices Paid Index backed off of its high in May, though remained elevated at at 66.3 with 69% of respondents reporting higher prices. The Prices Received Index gained 11 bps to 26.7.

The New Orders Index fell to -5.5, its sixth consecutive month in negative territory. The Shipments Index fell 11bps to -6.5, the Unfilled Orders Index fell to -10.5 and the Inventories Index came in at -2.3.

The Employment Indices were little changed with both the Employees Index and the Average Workweek Index with readings around zero.

Forward looking indices showed subtle improvements in May, however remained subdued.

The June Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -1.8 from -3.2 in May. The May New Orders Index was -0.5 and the Shipments Index fell to 4.6 from 17.5 previously. The May Prices Paid Index increased to 69.57 from 57.29 in April, while the Prices Received dropped to 15.22 from 20.83 in April. Both the May Employment and Work Week indices came in at 1.09.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of -8 to 7 with an average estimate at -1.3.

The June Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in June including: June ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index. All the aforementioned indices are expected to show modest improvements in June when factoring in current estimates for the NY FED Index. A lower-than-expected reading is likely to yield downward revision to forecasts for the other major manufacturing reports.

The June Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -1.8 from -3.2 in May. The May New Orders Index was -0.5 and the Shipments Index fell to 4.6 from 17.5 previously. The May Prices Paid Index increased to 69.57 from 57.29 in April, while the Prices Received dropped to 15.22 from 20.83 in April. Both the May Employment and Work Week indices came in at 1.09.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimate from an index reading of -8 to 7 with an average estimate at -1.3.

The June Empire State Index will set the stage for other major manufacturing data in June including: June ISM manufacturing, Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index. All the aforementioned indices are expected to show modest improvements in June when factoring in current estimates for the NY FED Index. A lower-than-expected reading is likely to yield downward revision to forecasts for the other major manufacturing reports.

The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in at -3.2 versus and expected 0.0 reading and against a positive 0.6 last time.

The new orders index remained came in at -0.5 and the shipments index at 4.6 was down sharply.

The prices paid index exceeded its earlier record high by a wide margin, reaching 69.6, while the prices received index dipped several points.

Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally low and down from last month’s levels, suggesting that the outlook for the next six months remains subdued, particularly for employment.

Supplementary questions in the May survey focused on past and expected changes in the prices that firms pay for inputs and the prices that they charge their customers. Respondents estimated that the prices they paid had risen 8.7 percent, on average, over the past twelve months, and they expected such prices to rise by an average of 6.8 percent over the next twelve months. In contrast, firms’ selling prices were reported to have risen by an average of just 2.9 percent over the past twelve months, but were expected to accelerate for a 4.1 percent increase over the next twelve months.

The May Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 0 from 0.6 in Apr. and -22.23 in Mar., which was the lowest reading since the survey’s inception in ’01.

The Empire FED Index’s New Orders, Employment, and Work Week components were all unchanged in Apr. Prices Received were 20.83 and Prices Paid were 57.29, the highest reading since ’05.

The Empire FED Index is the first of the 4 major manufacturing reports published each month and therefore is very difficult to predict. Analysts have correspondingly issued a relatively wide range of estimates from an index reading of 10 to -10 with an average estimate at -1.2.

Even with a benign reading in May, the Empire State index would still be performing better than expected given the recessionary landscape in the US economy, especially in the manufacturing sector.

Recent sentiment reports continue to show readings better than those typically associated with recession. Nonetheless, consumer confidence waned marginally in Apr. according to both the Conference Board and U of M consumer confidence reports.

Higher import prices and energy costs for manufacturers should be mitigated somewhat by an increase in exports as the weak USD has boosted the appeal of American goods abroad.

The May Empire State Index will set the stage for the May ISM manufacturing index as well as Chicago PMI and the Philly Fed Index. All the aforementioned indices are expected to show modest improvements in May when factoring in current estimates for the NY FED Index. A lower-than-expected reading is likely to yield downward revision to forecasts for the other major manufacturing reports.