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July Durable Goods Orders are expected to be unchanged following a 0.8% June increase. Durable orders ex-transports are expected to fall 0.7% after a 1.4% decrease in June and a 2.8% May drop.

Durable Shipments are expected to rise 0.6% after rising by the same percentage the month prior. July Durable Inventories are expected to gain 0.2%, which would push the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.56 from 1.57.

Vehicle sales are expected to show a modest uptick in July following a 1.6% increase in June, despite continued weakness in the auto sector. Civilian aircraft orders are also expected to increase moderately, though aircraft shipments are expected to show marginal declines. Aircraft orders fell 20.2% in June following an 8.4% May increase, and defense orders rose 12.9% in June following a 13.9% rise prior.

Related data:
• July ISM Manufacturing Production grew to 52.9 from 51.5 in May
• The July Employment Report revealed a 0.1% drop in manufacturing aggregate hours
• July Industrial Production rose 0.2%, with manufacturing sector output up 0.4%
• July Empire Fed Index grew marginally to -4.9
• July Chicago PMI and New Orders indices grew marginally

Durable Goods Orders rose 0.8% in June, beating estimates of a 0.3% decline and following an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in May (previously reported as unchanged).

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders jumped 2%, much more than expected and the biggest gain since December. May’s ex-transports number was revised to a 0.5% drop, previously reported as a 0.8% decline.

Excluding defense, durable goods orders edged up 0.1%, the first rise in 3 months.

The June numbers were driven higher by increases in orders for primary metals (up 5.1%), machinery (up 2.3%), electrical equipment (up 5%) and motor vehicles and parts (up 1.8%). Higher prices over the period were sure to have increased the value of durable goods orders, and the weaker USD likely attracted overseas buying.

Orders of capital goods fell 0.9%, pushed down by fewer aircraft orders –- nondefense capital goods fell 3.2%, but excluding aircraft, they were up 1.4%. Defense capital goods rose 15.8%.

Meanwhile, durable goods shipments rose 0.5% in June and unfilled orders were up 0.9%. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.5%.

June Durable Goods Orders are expected to fall 0.3% following an unchanged reading in May and a 1% decrease in April. Durable goods ex-transports in June are expected to fall 0.2% following a 0.8% decrease prior. Shipments are expected to increase 0.7% following a 1.1% increase in May, while inventories are expected to gain 0.4%, matching the May increase, which would leave the inventory-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.56.

The June Industrial Production report revealed a 0.7% increase in durable goods manufacturing, which should provide upside support for June orders. Vehicle production and shipments are expected to improve thanks to the American Axel work stoppage coming to an end.

The June ISM manufacturing production component improved slightly to 51.5 from 51.2 in May, but June employment report revealed further deterioration in manufacturing aggregate hours, which puts downward pressure on the June durable goods report.

Aircraft orders are expected to be lower after Boeing revealed a decline in orders over the period; however shipments are likely to remain strong.

The mixed set of data likely means a weak to muted reading for June Durable Goods.

June Durable Goods Orders are expected to fall 0.3% following an unchanged reading in May and a 1% decrease in April. Durable goods ex-transports in June are expected to fall 0.2% following a 0.8% decrease prior. Shipments are expected to increase 0.7% following a 1.1% increase in May, while inventories are expected to gain 0.4%, matching the May increase, which would leave the inventory-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.56.

The June Industrial Production report revealed a 0.7% increase in durable goods manufacturing, which should provide upside support for June orders. Vehicle production and shipments are expected to improve thanks to the American Axel work stoppage coming to an end.

The June ISM manufacturing production component improved slightly to 51.5 from 51.2 in May, but June employment report revealed further deterioration in manufacturing aggregate hours, which puts downward pressure on the June durable goods report.

Aircraft orders are expected to be lower after Boeing revealed a decline in orders over the period; however shipments are likely to remain strong.

The mixed set of data likely means a weak to muted reading for June Durable Goods.

Durable goods orders were unchanged in May, but from a downwardly revised April loss of 1% (originally reported as a 0.5% drop).

Excluding transportation, orders were down 0.9% following April’s 1.9% increase, initially reported as 2.5% – revised lower due to a less monumental increase in electrical equipment and bigger declines in computer and communications equipment orders than previously reported.

Excluding defense, durable goods orders fell 0.6%.

The overall May number was dampened by declines in orders for machinery (-5.3%), motor vehicles and parts (-3.3%) and primary metals (-1.3%). Gains in computers and both defense and nondefense aircraft and parts were not enough to offset those declines.

Orders of capital goods were up 1.5% in May following a 1.9% drop in April, driven by a 10.8% jump in orders of defense capital goods.

Though the May data are in line with expectations, the notable downward revisions take the wind out of April’s marginally optimistic sails.

May Durable Goods orders are expected to be unchanged after a 0.5% decline in April. Analysts have a moderate range of estimates for the May data, from down 2.2% to up 1%.

Durables Goods Ex-Transports are expected to decline 1.0% after last month’s surprising 2.5% gain – a resilient sign on the surface, but somewhat masking higher inventories and weaker demand from consumers hesitant to make major purchases in uncertain times.

In terms of auto sales, May’s data should show some – but not much – recovery following the resolution of a long-running labor dispute between GM and American Axel. That strike threatened to push US auto production its lowest levels since 1998 and brought vehicle shipments down 4.7% in March.

Related data:
* The May Industrial Production data showed no change in durable goods manufacturing
* The May Employment Report showed a 26k drop in nonfarm manufacturing jobs
* The production component in the May ISM Manufacturing Survey improved to 51.2 from 49.1 in April

May Durable Goods orders are expected to be unchanged after a 0.5% decline in April. Analysts have a moderate range of estimates for the May data, from down 2.2% to up 1%.

Durables Goods Ex-Transports are expected to decline 1.0% after last month’s surprising 2.5% gain – a resilient sign on the surface, but somewhat masking higher inventories and weaker demand from consumers hesistant to make major purchases in uncertain times.

In terms of auto sales, May’s data should show some – but not much – recovery following the resolution of a long-running labor dispute between GM and American Axel. That strike threatened to push US auto production its lowest levels since 1998 and brought vehicle shipments down 4.7% in March.

Related data:
* The May Industrial Production data showed no change in durable goods manufacturing
* The May Employment Report showed a 26k drop in nonfarm manufacturing jobs
* The production component in the May ISM Manufacturing Survey improved to 51.2 from 49.1 in April

The better-than-expected 2.5% increase in April Durable Goods Ex-Transports is a clear sign of resiliency in the US manufacturing sector, but a closer look at the data reveals US manufacturing is not out of the woods yet.

Durable goods inventories have risen 9 of the past 10 months and now total $328.6bln, the highest total since the data were first published in ’92. This build in inventories is a reflection of higher prices and a reduction in overall demand. Producers will continue to curb production to compensate for elevated inventories, which will lead to more job cuts going forward.

Unfilled orders for durable goods have increased 26 of the past 27 months and now stand at $804.5bln — is the highest total since the data first became available in ’92 but also reflecting higher prices. Considering the recent increase in inventories, the jump in unfilled orders is more likely a result of overall weakness in the manufacturing sector as opposed to backlogs in production.

Continued weakness in the US auto sector should keep dragging on manufacturing going forward despite the settled dispute between GM and American Axle. Motor vehicle shipments are down nearly 12% on the year.

On the bright side, a weak USD should boost the appeal of US durable goods abroad, however higher prices for metals, energies and imported inputs may mitigate this advantage.

While the better-than-expected April Durable Goods data are encouraging, downside risks still plague the US manufacturing sector, which likely has yet to hit a bottom in this recent downturn.

April Durable Goods Orders fell 0.5%, the third decrease in 4 months but better than the low end of expectations. New Orders Ex-Transports were up 2.5%, a level not seen since Jul-07.

Ex-Defense, Orders dropped 0.3% versus a prior reading of up 0.3%. Electrical Equipment, Appliances and components orders lept 27.8% after a 18.9% decline in March.

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders were down 1.4%, Ex Aircraft they were up 4.2%. Non-Defense Aircraft and Parts New Orders fell 24.4%.

Defense Capital Goods Orders were up 4.8% after falling 12.5% in March.

Shipments of Manufactured Durable Goods were up 1.2% following a 0.9% decrease in March. The Total Value of Shipments was up 1.2% and Inventories were up 0.5%. Total Unfilled Orders rose for the 26th time in 27 months, rising 1%.

Overall, Durable Goods Ex Transports shows improvement but the Headline Data still displays a weak tone to Orders.

April Durable Goods orders are expected to fall 1.5% following a 0.3% decline in March. Analysts have a wide range of estimates for the April Durable Goods data, from down 5% to up 0.6%, though most expect a negative reading over the month.

Durables Goods Ex-Transports are expected to fall 0.5% after gaining 0.9% the prior month. Durable Goods Shipments are expected to fall 1.5% following a 0.3% decline in March, while Durable Goods Inventories in April are expected to increase 0.3% following a 1% March increase.

A reduction in overall aircraft orders in April adds further downside potential to the April estimates. Boeing reported a total of 99 plane orders in March but reported a mere 58 plane orders in April. This decline, combined with generally weak market conditions, is likely to weigh on durable goods performance in April.

Further complicating durable goods sector performance in April will be the extensive labor issues between GM and American Axel. AA’s strike, which ended Friday, threatened to push US auto production its lowest levels since 1998 (when another strike thwarted production). Vehicle shipments were down 4.7% in March following a 2.3% decline in February.

Related data:
* The April Industrial Production report showed a 1.4% drop in durable goods manufacturing.
* The April Employment Report showed a 1.2% decline in aggregate manufacturing hours worked.
* The production component in the April ISM Manufacturing Survey improved to 49.1 from 48.7 in March.