Need To Know News

October Consumer Confidence hit an all time low of 38 after an upwardly revised September reading of 61.4 (59.8). The previous low was 43.2 in December of 1974.
The October Present Situation Index cratered to 41.9 from 61.1 in September.

The Expectaions Index also fell very sharply to 35.5 from 61.5 in September.

Conference Board spokesperson Lynn Franco said, “The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumer confidence. The decline in the Index is the 3rd largest in the history of the series, and the lowest reading on record. ….Consumers rated Labor Market and Business Conditions much less favorably, suggesting that Q4 is off to a weaker start than Q3. …Consumers are extremely pessimistic looking ahead and a significantly larger number see business and labor conditions worsening. Their earnings outlook, as well as inflation outlook, is also more pessimistic and the news does not bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challenging holiday season.”

• October Consumer Confidence is expected to fall to 52 from 59.8 in September

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has increased modestly each of the past 3 months following a 51 reading in June, which was the 5th lowest reading on record. Further declines in energies over the period should continue to support consumer confidence, whoever the credit market meltdown and its deteriorating impact on retirement portfolios are likely to drag on Consumer Confidence. Furthermore, continued housing market weakness, combined with declining real wages and poor job market conditions are all likely to contribute to a considerable decline in Consumer confidence over the period.

Related data:
• The Current Conditions Index fell to 58.8 in September from 58.5 in August
• The Expectations Index grew to 60.5 from 54.1 prior
• The October UofM Consumer Confidence Survey fell to 57.5 from 70.3 prior
• The IBD/TIPP Survey fell to 41.1 from 45.8 in September
• The RBC CASH Survey fell to 37 in October from 69.2 prior

• October Consumer Confidence is expected to fall to 52 from 59.8 in September

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has increased modestly each of the past 3 months following a 51 reading in June, which was the 5th lowest reading on record. Further declines in energies over the period should continue to support consumer confidence, whoever the credit market meltdown and its deteriorating impact on retirement portfolios are likely to drag on Consumer Confidence. Furthermore, continued housing market weakness, combined with declining real wages and poor job market conditions are all likely to contribute to a considerable decline in Consumer confidence over the period.

Related data:
• The Current Conditions Index fell to 58.8 in September from 58.5 in August
• The Expectations Index grew to 60.5 from 54.1 prior
• The October UofM Consumer Confidence Survey fell to 57.5 from 70.3 prior
• The IBD/TIPP Survey fell to 41.1 from 45.8 in September
• The RBC CASH Survey fell to 37 in October from 69.2 prior

June Consumer Confidence came in at 56.4 but rebounded over the summer.  However, today’s data reverse back to the June level which harkens back May of 1980 when Confidence hit 51.7.

• Preliminary October UofM Consumer Confidence is expected to plunge to 63 from 70.3 in September

The credit market meltdown is expected to have led to a considerable reduction in confidence over the reference period, as fears surrounding the health and sustainability of the modern financial system are likely to trump any boost in confidence resulting from lower gas prices. Extensive equity market declines and its negative impact on 401k and other retirement accounts should help knock UofM confidence off its recent upward trend over the past three months. The slew of banking failures and concerns surrounding the safety of costumer deposits are also likely to have kept consumer on edge; and while the preliminary data may not reflect the entirety of the recent credit market rout, it should reflect at least the beginning of another run on confidence which could eventually drag the index down to historical lows.

• The Current Conditions Index was 75 in September from 71 in August
• The Expectations Index was 67.2 in September from 57.9 in August
• The October IBD/TIPP Index fell to 41.1 from 45.8 in September
• The RBC CASH Index plummeted to 37 from 69.2 in September

• Preliminary October UofM Consumer Confidence is expected to plunge to 63 from 70.3 in September

The credit market meltdown is expected to have led to a considerable reduction in confidence over the reference period, as fears surrounding the health and sustainability of the modern financial system are likely to trump any boost in confidence resulting from lower gas prices. Extensive equity market declines and its negative impact on 401k and other retirement accounts should help knock UofM confidence off its recent upward trend over the past three months. The slew of banking failures and concerns surrounding the safety of costumer deposits are also likely to have kept consumer on edge; and while the preliminary data may not reflect the entirety of the recent credit market rout, it should reflect at least the beginning of another run on confidence which could eventually drag the index down to historical lows.

• The Current Conditions Index was 75 in September from 71 in August
• The Expectations Index was 67.2 in September from 57.9 in August
• The October IBD/TIPP Index fell to 41.1 from 45.8 in September
• The RBC CASH Index plummeted to 37 from 69.2 in September