Archive for the ‘Closing Comments’ Category

Equities Close

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008

Equities finished the day mixed with Dow futures up 0.5% to 11406, S&P futures gaining 0.4% to 1274 and Nasdaq futures down 0.2% to 1915.

S&P futures had a roller coaster day but finished positive with one final rally at the end of the day. It challenged support at the 21-day moving average of 1275, but ended up closing just under it.

The S&P500 was led by the 3.6% jump in Energy stocks. Financial stocks were marginally lower despite Freddie plunging 22% and Fannie plunging 27%.

At 8:30am, Initial Jobless Claims are released, with a reading of 440k expected. July Leading Economic Indicators follows at 10am, and is expected to be down 0.2%. Also at 10, the Philly Fed Index comes out, with a consensus estimate of -12.6. At 10:35am, Natural Gas Storage data is released.

Fixed Income Close

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008

Bonds trended steadily higher and finished strongly despite equities’ recovery into the close. The 30yr added 13 ticks and again breached the 118 mark. The 10yr was up 11 ticks to 116-20. Today’s range completely encompassed yesterday’s, and resistance at 116 held for a third straight day.

Meanwhile, the 2yr added 5 ticks to 106-18. The 2yr-10yr spread has widened to 155bps, from about 146bps last week.

On the short end, the 3-month bill was very well bid, its yield dropping 10bps to 1.69%. The 4wk bill yield was down 7bps to 1.74% and the 6-month and 1yr yields fell 6bps each, to 1.90% and 2.04%, respectively.

Energies Close

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008

The energy complex finished higher across the board with Crude up 0.8% to 115.47, Unleaded gaining 1.6% to 291, Heating Oil rising 1.4% to 316.65 and Natural Gas adding 1.3% to 8.082.

Crude rallied for much of the afternoon to reverse its morning losses. Today was the last day of trading for the September contract, and traders may have been unwinding their month-long shorts or rolling over their positions into the October contract. October Crude closed at 115.59.

Natural Gas also rallied in the afternoon, breaking through resistance at the $8 level. Tomorrow resistance will be at the 9-day moving average of 8.171 with support at $8.

Heating Oil continued to be supported by the 200-day moving average (306.10). For the second straight day, the 320 level served as resistance.

Metals Close

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008

Metals finished the day mixed with Gold flat at 816.6, Silver off 0.5% to 13.035, Platinum up 1.5% to 1372 and Copper falling 0.8% to 339.70.

After repeatedly bouncing off session highs around 824 early in the session, Gold sold off into negative territory and hit a low of 805. However, it managed to rally into the close to finish relatively unchanged. Tomorrow, 805 will be support with the key 800 level below that. On the upside, the 9-day moving average (820.30) and today’s high (824.50) will be resistance.

Copper spent the afternoon challenging resistance at 340, but was unable to break through the level. 340 will also provide resistance tomorrow with today’s low of 360 serving as support.

Equities Close

Tuesday, August 19th, 2008

Equities finished significantly lower for the second straight day with Dow futures down 1.3% to 11351, S&P futures falling 1.1% to 1268 and Nasdaq futures tumbling 1.3% to 1919.

In the afternoon, S&P futures made a double bottom around 1263, but still closed near their low. While Energy stocks in the S&P500 gained over 3%, 8 out of 10 sectors were negative. Financials lost 3%, led by Lehman plunging 13%.

The only data to be released tomorrow will be EIA Petroleum Inventories at 10:35am EDT.

Fixed Income Close

Tuesday, August 19th, 2008

Bonds closed well off their lows in a choppy trading day that saw equity indices lose more than 1% and the dollar retrace some of its recent hot streak.

The 30yr future closed down 10 ticks at 117-19 while its medium and long-term moving averages converged under price at 115-21. The 10yr behaved similarly but was down only 2 ticks at the day’s end, at 116-10.

On the short end, bills were mixed. The 4wk yield rose 3bps to 1.73%. The 3-month was flat at 1.79%. The 6-month bill yield fell 8bps to 1.92%, while the 1yr yield dropped 2bps to 2.10%.

Energies Close

Tuesday, August 19th, 2008

The energy complex finished higher across the board with Crude up 1.4% to 114.47, Unleaded rising 1.7% to 286.20, Heating Oil adding 312.51 and Natural Gas climbing 1% 7.968.

After reaching a high of 116.35 at lunch, Crude sold off for much of the afternoon. It bounced off the 115 level, but didn’t hold support until 114. Tomorrow, resistance will be up at today’s high of 116.65 with support down at the low of 111.64.

Natural Gas had seemingly broken through key resistance at $8, but it plunged back through the level in the afternoon. It held support at yesterday’s close of 7.888, but was unable to breach the $8 level after testing it late in the day. Natural Gas will likely be bound by 7.888 and 8.000 in early trade tomorrow.

Metals Close

Tuesday, August 19th, 2008

Metals finished mixed on the day with Gold up 1.3% to 816.80, Silver flat at 13.105, Platinum down 3.1% to 1351.3 and Copper rising 3.4% to 342.85.

Gold broke key resistance at 800 and shot up to 820 around noon. It trickled downwards for the rest of the session, but held on to most of its gains. Tomorrow, resistance will be at today’s high of 820.80 with support at the 800 handle.

Copper rallied all the way up to the 21-day moving average of 347, but couldn’t break through resistance. It sold off into the close and also fell below Thursday’s high of 343.40.

Yesterday’s close of 13.10 served as resistance for Silver for much of the day, but that level was breached around lunch and Silver reached a high of 13.335. Silver could not hold those gains, however, and sold off until it hit 13.10, which had turned into support.

Platinum continued its run downwards although it finished well of its low of 1307. Platinum is off 34% in the last 5 weeks.

European Summary

Tuesday, August 19th, 2008

European equities got slammed for a second consecutive day off heightened banking concerns and JPMorgan’s prediction that Lehman may post an additional $4bln in credit-related write-downs. This particularly hurt banking stocks, as Barclay’s fell 5.4% and Societe Generale fell 4.2%. CIBA fell 17%, its worst decline since its ’97 IPO, after revealing an unexpected Q2 loss. The DJ Eurostoxx fell 2.6%, the FTSE 100 fell 2.4% and the DAX fell 2.35%. Better-than-expected ZEW confidence data out of the EU and Germany failed to curb today’s sell-off.

European bonds also came under selling pressure despite the rout on equities with the German 10yr bund, down 0.19%, improving its yield 2bps to 4.16% following higher than expected July PPI data from Germany. The 10yr gilt is marginally higher with a yield of 4.587% after the BOE’s Besley forecast UK CPI to return to around 2% by late ’09.

EUR/USD spent most of the session in the red, despite the higher than expected Germany PPI data, but has trended higher since and is currently near session highs, just under the 1.4780 handle. Cable also spent most of the European session in the red, falling as low as 1.8537, but has since rebounded to flat on the day at 1.86659. GBP/JPY, down 0.4% to 204.60, continues to face selling pressure going into the afternoon session.EUR/GBP is up 0.5% to 0.7919, EUR/CHF is flat at 1.613 and GBP/CHF is down 0.5% to 2.0375.

Tomorrow’s European data includes June Construction Output, expected to gain 0.2% on the month while the y-o-y reading is expected at -1.1%. Tomorrow’s UK data includes minutes from the BOE August policy meeting, July Public Sector Finance and the July M4 money supply.

Equities Close

Monday, August 18th, 2008

Equities finished the day significantly lower with Dow futures down 1.4% to 11503, S&P futures falling 1.4% to 1282 and Nasdaq futures tumbling 1.1% to 1944.

S&P futures started selling off at the open and never looked back. S&Ps hit a low of 1274 late in the day but month-long trendline support held. After testing support again, S&Ps rallied into the close to pare its losses.

All sectors in the S&P500 finished negative, with Financials losing 3.7%. Freddie Mac plunged 25% and Fannie Mae dropped 22%. Investment banks were also hard hit with Lehman falling 7% and Morgan Stanley shedding 6%.

July PPI will be released at 8:30am EDT with expectations of increases of 0.6% for headline m-o-m, 0.2% for core m-o-m, 9.3% for headline y-o-y and 3.2% for core y-o-y. Also at 8:30am, July Housing Starts are expected at 960k with Building Permits forecast at 970k. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales will be released at 8:55am. At 10am, Dallas FED President Fisher talks about the economic outlook in Colorado and Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks on a conference call at 11:15am.