Initial Jobless Claims Preview
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 16 are expected at 440k from 450k the previous week. Tomorrow’s report will likely be the 5th straight week of claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession. Labor officials have attributed the high numbers of the last 3 weeks to more people checking their eligibility for emergency unemployment benefits and learning they were actually eligible for regular benefits.
Continuing Claims are expected at 3.405mln, lower than the 3.417mln last week (which was the highest since Nov-03).
The 4-week moving average for claims was 441k last week, compared to 421k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.274mln for the week ended August 2, from 3.167mln the prior week.