July Retail Sales Preview
July retail sales are expected to decrease 0.1% following a 0.1% increase in June. Retail sales ex-autos in July are expected to grow 0.5% following a 0.8% increase prior.
Headline retail sales data will be hurt by the 8% drop in July unit vehicle sales, a 16-year low. However, gas station sales are expected to boost the headline number due to a 4% increase in retail gas prices during July.
The effects of the government stimulus checks should still have a positive effect on the data, especially the ex-autos number. The ex-autos reading has outperformed the headline number in every month since October.
Related data include:
July Redbook Retail Sales: up 1.4%
July ICSC/UBS Retail Sales: up 1%
June Personal Income: up 0.1%
June Personal Spending: up 0.6%