July Import/Export Prices Preview
The July Import Price Index is expected to increase 1% following a 2.6% increase in both April and May. Y-o-Y import prices are expected to narrow marginally to 20.4%. Export Prices are expected to gain 0.6% following a 1% increase prior. Y-o-Y export prices were up 8.6% in June following a 8.1% rate in May.
Import prices are expected to show a marked deceleration in July in line with range-bound petroleum prices over the period. That should provide some relief from recent surges in the Petroleum Import Price Index (which gained 7.4% in June after an 8.9% increase in May and a 7.9% increase in April). The y-o-y Petroleum Import Price Index should pull back from the 78.6% rate in the June report.
There is continued upside risk to the ex-Petroleum Import Price Index from higher food prices and pipeline inflation pressure. The index was up 0.9% in June following a 0.7% increase in May. The y-o-y ex-Petroleum Import Price Index was 7.3% higher, after a 6.6% rate prior.
Higher food prices — which grew 2.2% in June after a 0.2% increase in May — should again boost the July Export Price Index. The July Ag-Price Index jumped 1.9%, though a selection of commodity prices fell. The y-o-y Food Export Price Index was up 33% in June following 33.7% growth in May, and the ex-Ag Export Price Index was up 6.4% in June following a 5.6% gain prior.