2008 CORN END STOCK ESTIMATES UP ON LARGER PRODUCTION, FARM PRICES DOWN 10%
USDA’s World Supply and Demand estimates raised U.S. corn production 5% from July estimates based on August survey results. Production is now estimated to be 6% below 2007 levels. While 2008 use has also been increased by 2% from July estimates, the estimate of stocks at the end of this crop year, has been raised by 300 million bushels, up 36%. While that stock estimate will still be below last year’s ending stock levels, the estimated average farm price for the year has been reduced 10% to an average $5.40 from $6 estimated in July, but that would still leave corn prices 27% above the 2007 average. That reflects the impacts not only of the increased estimate of U.S. production but also an increase in the estimate in foreign ending stocks.
U.S. Soybean production has been reduced 1% from the July estimates based on August survey results, that would be an increase of 15% from last year’s sharply reduced crop. Use of soybeans in the U.S. Has been reduced by about half a percent from the July estimates to 2.9 billion bushels, mostly from a reduction in soybean crushings. However, ending stocks are still estimated to be 135 million bushels, unchanged from the ending stock levels fro the 2007 crop year and below the July estimate for the 2008 crop year. Despite the lower stock numbers, the estimated average farm price for soybeans has been reduced from $12.75 to $12.25 per bushel but that is still well above last year’s $10.15 per bushel. While world oilseed production estimates have been reduced, the yield of meal and oil has been increased thus raising the world estimates for oil and meal production this year.
Global wheat production has been raised in today’s estimates to 670.8 million metric tons, up 6.5 million tons from last month and up 60.2 million metric tons from 2007. U.S. Wheat production was raised only slightly from last month’s estimates but increased production in Europe, India, Russia and the Ukraine raised world estimates overall. Estimated U.S. use of wheat has been reduced by 1.5% and ending stocks in the U.S. have been raised slightly to 574 million bushels, up 88% from the 2007 ending stocks.
Increased U.S. And world production has resulted in a reduction in the estimated average farm price for wheat to $7.25 per bushel from $7.50 per bushel estimated in July. However, that would still be up 12% from the average price in 2007.