Initial Jobless Claims Preview
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 are expected at 425k from 448k the previous week. The Department of Labor attributed the high claims number to states being required to notify residents of a new extended benefits program. However, many who applied for the new program were actually eligible for regular benefits instead, and were counted in the initial claims figures. This boost in claims is expected to continue over the next 4-6 weeks. Tomorrow’s report will likely be the third straight week of initial claims over 400k, the number typically associated with a recession.
Continuing Claims are expected at 3.255mln from 3.282mln the prior week, which was the highest reading since 2003. The 185k increase prior was the largest in a decade.
The 4-week moving average for claims was 393k last week, compared to 382k the prior week. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 3.175mln for the week ended July 19, from 3.132mln the prior week.