July ISM-Non Manufacturing Index Preview
The July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (ISM-NMI) is expected to improve to 48.7 from 48.2 in June. The July ISM-NMI Production Index is expected to improve marginally to 50 from 49.9 in June.
The ISM-NMI Employment Index fell to 43.8 in June from 48.7 in May, the New Orders Index fell to 48.6 from 53.6, and the Prices Paid Index grew to an all-time high of 84.5 from 77 prior.
A muted month for the ISM-NMI is expected in July, though downside risks continue to test the US service sector’s resilience. The July ADP Employment report showed a surprising 74k increase in service-sector jobs, which could provide some upside support for the July ISM-NMI report (but the July Employment report revealed a 30k decline in private service sector jobs). The June ISM-NMI Employment Index fell to its lowest level since the survey’s inception in ’97, which may leave room for some correction — but it could still plunge lower.
The July ISM-NMI Prices Paid Index is likely to remain elevated following its June surge, as July inflation data have generally come in higher than expected.
Related data:
July Empire Fed Index: -4.92 vs. -8.68 prior
July Empire Fed Prices Paid Index: 77.9 (record) vs. 66.28 prior
July Philly Fed Index: -16.3 vs. -17.1 prior
July Philly Fed Prices Paid Index: 75.60 vs. 69.30 prior
July Chicago PMI: 50.8 vs. 49.6 prior
July Chicago PMI Prices Paid Index: 90.7 vs. 85.5 prior
July ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index: 88.5 vs. 91.5 (record) prior