Initial Jobless Claims Preview — Updated
Today’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected to come in at 393k, down 13k from an unrevised 406k in the previous week. Continuing Claims are expect to jump to 3.15mln from 3.107mln the previous week.
Last week’s jump over 400k was the third time this year claims topped the 400k level. In the week ended March 28, claims rose 35k to 406k but quickly reversed to 355k the following week. It was another 13 weeks until claims topped 400k again.
In the week ended June 27, Claims jumped 16k to 404k but then saw a sharp reversal to 348k the next week in what appeared to be another head-fake. However, the time between recessionary-level claims is shrinking, and expectations for higher claims are climbing. If Claims come in well below tomorrow’s expected 393k, we expect the government will have done some hiring during the period.