July Consumer Confidence Preview
The Conference Board’s July Consumer Confidence Index is expected to fall to 50 from 50.4 in June, which was the lowest reading since March ’92 and the 5th lowest reading in the history of the index.
The Current Conditions Index fell to 64.5 in June from 74.2 in May. The Expectations Index fell to a new historical low in June at 41 from 47.3 prior.
The sharp correction in energy prices at the end of the month is likely to yield some improvement in consumer attitudes, but the prevalence of downside growth risks including the near-collapse of Freddie and Fannie is likely to keep the US consumer on edge. The collapse and subsequent bank run at Indy Mac is also likely to have had a negative effect on consumer confidence over the period.
U of M Consumer Confidence improved to 61.2 in July from 56.4 in June, while the Current Conditions and Expectations Indices also gained ground over the period. The RBC CASH Index fell to a new record low of 14.6 in July from 22.5 in June. The IBD/TIPP Index was unchanged at 37.4 in July.