June ISM Manufacturing Index Preview
The June ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 48.6 from 49.6 in May. The May New Orders Index improved to 49.7 from 46.5, the Shipments Index grew to 51.2 from 49.1 and the Employees Index was nearly unchanged at 45.5 in May.
The Prices Paid Index grew to 87 in May from 84.5 in April, the Inventories Index was nearly unchanged at 48, and the Backlogs Index fell to 46 from 51.5 in April.
Muted declines in the ISM Manufacturing Index are expected as the US manufacturing sector remained under stress from credit markets and deteriorating market sentiment figures. The June ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to report a reading below 50 — indicative of contraction — for a 5th consecutive month. Nonetheless the muted ISM Manufacturing data over the past 5 months has been stronger than what is typically associated with recession.
Regional manufacturing data has been mixed with June Chicago PMI coming in better than expected and the Philly FED and Empire State indices each lower than forecast.
Empire FED Index: -8.7 vs. -3.2 prior
Prices Paid: 66.3 vs. 69.6 prior
Prices Received: 26.7 vs. 15.2 prior
New Orders: -5.5 vs. -0.5 prior
Philly Fed Index: -17.1 vs. -15.6 prior
Prices Paid: 69.3 vs. 53.8 prior (Prices Paid at highest since 1980)
Employment: -6.9 vs. -1 prior
New Orders: -12.4 vs. -3.7 prior
Chicago PMI: 49.6 vs. 49.1 prior
New Orders: 52 vs. 56.1 prior
Prices Paid: 85.5 vs. 87.5 prior
Employment: 46.7 vs. 41.2 prior