June Chicago PMI Preview
June Chicago PMI is expected to fall to 48.4 from 49.1 in March which would be well off the multi-year low of 44.5 in February but still reflecting overall industry contraction.
In general, Chicago PMI has remained steadfast when compared with historical data associated with recession. New Orders came in at 56.1 in May and should remain strong in June. Shipments in May backed off from 53 in April but remained in expansion mode at 51.5. May deliveries came in at 51 from 52.5 in April.
Backlogs came in at 46.8 in May from 39.5 in April, while inventories fell from 51.9 to 42.2. The Employees index was weak at 41.2 but much improved from the 35.3 reading in April.
The Prices Paid index, which came in at 87.5 in May from 82.9 in April, is likely to remain elevated and will be of interest to FED-watchers.
Both the Empire Fed and Philly FED indices came in lower than expected in June which suggests a stagnant environment in US manufacturing over the period.
Empire FED Index: -8.7 VS. -3.2 prior
Prices Paid: 66.3 vs. 69.6 prior
Prices Received: 26.7 vs. 15.2 prior
New Orders: -5.5 vs. -0.5 prior
Philly FED Index: -17.1 vs. -15.6 prior
Prices Paid: 69.3 vs. 53.8 prior (Prices Paid at highest since 1980)
Employment: -6.9 vs. -1 prior
New Orders: -12.4 vs. -3.7 prior
** Note: June NAPM Milwaukee — 45 in April — will be released 15 minutes after Chicago PMI.