May Durable Goods Preview
May Durable Goods orders are expected to be unchanged after a 0.5% decline in April. Analysts have a moderate range of estimates for the May data, from down 2.2% to up 1%.
Durables Goods Ex-Transports are expected to decline 1.0% after last month’s surprising 2.5% gain – a resilient sign on the surface, but somewhat masking higher inventories and weaker demand from consumers hesitant to make major purchases in uncertain times.
In terms of auto sales, May’s data should show some – but not much – recovery following the resolution of a long-running labor dispute between GM and American Axel. That strike threatened to push US auto production its lowest levels since 1998 and brought vehicle shipments down 4.7% in March.
Related data:
* The May Industrial Production data showed no change in durable goods manufacturing
* The May Employment Report showed a 26k drop in nonfarm manufacturing jobs
* The production component in the May ISM Manufacturing Survey improved to 51.2 from 49.1 in April