Fed Funds Slightly Lower After Productivity, Jobs Data
Fed funds futures have shifted slightly lower today after the ADP employment and final Q1 productivity numbers came in better than expected. Implied rates are still heavily weighted toward a steady FED policy stance with a 2% funds target through the fall. June futures show a 96% chance of no cut at the upcoming FOMC.
The December implied rate, however, is reflecting a roughly 50-50 chance for a 25bp rate hike by the end of the year.