May Consumer Confidence Preview
The Conference Board’s May Consumer Confidence index is expected at 60.1 after a reading of 62.3 in April and 65.9 in March.
The Present Situations Index fell to 80.7 in April from 90.6 in March, reflecting ongoing weakness that the Board said suggested feeble Q1 growth conditions may have worsened in Q2. Inflation expectations were at an all-time high, exceeding post-Hurricane Katrina readings, in the April report. While food prices reportedly eased somewhat in recent weeks, Crude’s 20% jump in May will do nothing to slow inflation expectations in this month’s survey.
In the April report, the number of survey respondents planning a vacation over the next 6 months fell to its lowest level in 30 years. Survey respondents expecting worsening business conditions over the next 6 months grew to 27% from 26% in March. Respondents anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead rose to 32.8% from 29.3% the prior month.
The other major measure of consumer confidence — the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — was 59.5 in May, the lowest level since 1980. That reading, as well as the inflationary data out this month, doesn’t bode well for Tuesday’s Conference Board index.