Apr. Leading Economic Indicators Up 0.1%, Coincident Flat, Lagging Up 0.1%
The Conference Board reports April Leaders were up 0.1% in April after a 0.1% gain in March and a 0.2% drop in February. The past 2 months’ gains come on the heels of 5 straight monthly losses on the Index. Conference Board Labor Economist Goldstein notes that while these data indicate a weak economy, they do not indicate a recession.
Stock prices, the interest rate spread and housing permits were positive for the Index this month while average weekly hours and consumer expectations were negative elements.
The Coincident Index was unchanged in April and March after a 0.3% decline in February. Indeed the Coincident Index has not been up in 8 months. Industrial Production and Employment declines were offset by gains in Personal Income and Real Manufacturing and Trade sales. The Coincident Index is down 0.7% on an annual in April.
The Conference Board notes some stabilization in the Leading Index but notes widespread weakness in the Coincident Index components. The Conference Board expects economic activity to remain weak in the near term.