Apr. Leading Economic Indicators Preview
The Apr. US Leading Economic Index is expected at -0.1% following a 0.1% increase in Mar. The 6-month annualized average for the LEI was down 3.3% in Mar. and Feb. following a 4.5% decrease in Jan., which is considered the “recession threshold.” The LEI was down 2% y-o-y in Mar. after being down 1.7% y-o-y from Dec.-Feb.
The Coincident Index fell 0.1% in Mar. and is down 13.5% y-o-y. The Lagging Index gained 0.3% in Mar. and is up 2.8% y-o-y.
Potential Additions to the Apr. LEI include:
-Gains in the S&P 500
-Improvements in the 10yr yield relative to Fed Funds
-Increase in building permits
-Fewer Initial Jobless claims
-Improvement in ISM deliveries
Likely subtractions to the Index include:
-A decline factory workweek hours
-Atrocious Consumer confidence data
Downside risks to the Apr. LEI are expected to mitigate potential upsides and yield a flat index reading over the period.