Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview
The University of Michigan Survey, out at 10:00am EST tomorrow, is estimated to come in at 79.0 versus and 80.5 in the prior reading.
The December and October readings were in the mid-70s and the Index has been falling since July ‘07. Consumer Sentiment has been a driver in ginned-up talk of recession, though Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence are not reliable predictors of recessions.
The December reading marked the first turnaround in these data in several months but, given the employment situation, there is little reason to believe respondents will be upbeat on their assessment of current conditions or 6 months hence.