Noon Report
Tomorrow’s Releases
ICSC/UBS Chain Store Sales up 0.1% (Oct. 27th week) vs. -1.5 prior
Y/Y—up 2.5% vs. 2.2% prior
Redbook Retails Sales: 1.9% y/y week; 2.2% y/y month; -0.3% m/m
S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y: -4% vs. -3.8% prior revised
Consumer Confidence: 95.6 vs. 99.5 prior revised
1:00e— 4-week bill auction
Merrill’s Stan O’Neil “steps down”
Stan O’Neil has stepped down as Merrill Lynch’s CEO following an abysmal Q3 that included $8.4 bln in write-downs. Alberto Cribiore will take over on an interim basis and help in the search for a new CEO.
US Treasury/ Fixed Income
The FED added $12 via 2-day REPOS and $5 bln via overnight REPOS
Oct. FED Fund Futures now factor in a 94% chance of a 25 BPS cut and a 6% chance of a 50 BPS cut when the FOMC meets on Halloween. FED Funds have averaged around 4.5% at day’s settle since the FOMC cut 50 BPS on Sept. 18th.
CBOT Oct. Binary Options show a 67% chance of a 25 BPS cut; a 15.5% chance of a 50 BPS cut and a 17.5% chance the
FED will leave rates unchanged.
Oct. FED Fund Options show a 74% chance the FED will cut 25 BPS; a 12% chance the FED will cut 50 BPS and a 12% chance the FED will leave rates unchanged.
The US Treasury will sell $20 bln in 4-week bills at 1:00e
Bonds are flat to lower as tomorrow’s rate announcement looms.
30-yr. yield: up .066 to 4.67%
10-yr. yield: flat at 4.38%
2-yr. yield: flat at 3.81%
6-month yield: flat at 4.07%
3-month yield: flat at 3.99%
4-week yield: flat at 4.07%
Equities
Equities started the day in the red and where sent lower following the poor consumer confidence data.
DOW Futures: down 64 to 13840
S&P Futures: down 9.5 to 1537
Nasdaq Futures: down 1.25 to 2214
Forex
The USD is mixed on the day, hitting a new record low vs. GBP
USD Index flat at 76.808
EUR/USD flat at 1.4429
USD/JPY flat at 114.67
Cable up .28% to 2.0681
USD/CHF down .35% to 1.1606
USD/CAD flat at .9538
Commodities
Energies and metals are lower across the board except natural gas.
Crude down 1.6% to 92.04
Unleaded down 1% to 230.43
Heating Oil down .46% to 245.32
Natural Gas up 1.63% to 8.106
Gold down .72% to 786.90
Silver down .66% to 14.335
Platinum down 1% to 1450.80
Copper down 1.92% to 345.35