Closing Report
Goldman Cuts Merrill’s Q3 estimates
Goldman Sachs cut Merrill Lynch’s Q3 EPS to 0.15 from 1.95 citing a “multi-billion dollar” writedown due to weakness in mortgages and CDOs. A Goldman analyst predicts Merrill will have $4 bln in writedowns with $1.5 bln in losses related to fixed income. This led to a brief pullback in equities as bonds took back most of their losses.
Buffet to buy Stake in Bear Stearns?
Speculation that Bear Stearns would be selling a minority stake led to a 10% gain in the company’s stock. Bank of America, Wachovia and China Construction Bank are said to have expressed interest in a 20% stake of Bear Stearns. Warren Buffet is also rumored to interested, which led to a late session surge in equities
Economic Releases
August Durable Goods Orders ex-transport came in below estimates at -1.8% after a prior revised reading of 3.4%, the largest one-month drop since January. The Headline figure also came in lower than expected at -4.9% vs. a 6.1% reading in July, the largest monthly decline since October ’06. Surprisingly enough, the poor data lead to a rally in equities, a minor sell-off in treasuries, and a counterintuitive strengthening of the USD.
MBA Mortgage Applications fell 2.8% in the week of September 21st, the first weekly drop in application in just over a month.
The American Bankers Association reports overdue payments on home equity credit lines hit a 5 and a half year high in Q2 ’07 at 0.77% . Delinquencies from other consumer loans fell in Q2.
Rating Agencies
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox testified before the Senate Banking Panel saying the SEC is looking into underwriting standards and whether credit rating agencies were improperly influenced by issuers. The SEC is investigating whether or not rating agencies took proper measures in managing conflicts of interest. The SEC will also investigate procedures and methodologies to find out why it took so long for RMBS ratings adjustments.
A representative of S&P says the company has heightened the intensity in which it rates and analyses transactions to ensure the viability of the ratings. S&P also says it has increased the time in which transactions are analyzed and is taking steps to prevent potential conflicts of interest.
Moody’s proposed changes to subprime RMBS securitization including:
- 3rd party oversight of loan accuracy and info
- Increase loan-level info access to transaction participant
- Improved credit distinctions
- Expansion and standardization of RMBS reports
US Treasury/ Fixed Income
The FED added $15.25 bln in overnight REPOS; FED Funds are above the 4.25% target at 4.875%.
US Treasury auctioned $18 bln in 2-yr. Notes @ high 4%; bid-to-cover 3.29; 86.89% bid awarded @ the high. The high bid-to-cover indicates strong demand for 2-yr notes.
Bonds sold off after the poor durable goods report and turned flat after Goldman cut Merrill’s Q3 earnings estimate. Bonds weakened as equities rallied late due to rumors that Warren Buffet may be a minority stake in Bear Stearns.
30-yr. yield: down .003 to 4.897 %
10-yr. yield: up .004 to 4.628%
2-yr. yield: down .004 to 3.99%
6-month yield: down .02 to 4.04%
3-month yield: down .11 to 3.68%
4-week yield: down .18 to 3.2%
FED Funds Futures show an 86% chance of a cut to 4.5% in October.
Forex
The USD gained vs. most major currencies with the USD Index up .3% after hitting a historical low yesterday.
EUR/USD down .1% to 1.4127
USD/JPY up .64% to 115.51
Cable down .15% to 2.0157
USD/CHF up .4% to 1.1707
Commodities
DOE Inventories showed an unexpected increase in Crude and Unleaded stocks and a higher than expected drop in Refinery Utilization. Tomorrow’s EIA Natural Gas Storage change is expected to show a build of 74 BCF.
Crude finished $1 higher to 80.50
Unleaded fell 1 cent to 202.77
Heating Oil finished marginally higher at 218.29
Natural Gas is up 1% to 6.423
Metals finished the day lower across the board
Gold is down $3 to 735.80
Silver is down 8 cents to 13.54;
Platinum is down 1.80 to 1356
Copper is down 1 cent to 361.90
Tomorrow’s economic releases
Q2 Final GDP 8:30 E
3.8% estimate vs. 4% prior
Jobless Claims 8:30E
316k estimate vs. 311k prior
August New Home Sales 10E
-5.2% (825k) estimate vs. 2.8% (870k) prior
August Help wanted Index 10E
24 estimate vs. 25 prior
Natural Gas Report 10:30E
74 BCF estimate
Money Supply 4:30 E